Contentious Democracy in the Troubled East of EU: Populists Lock Horns with Mayors
Welcome back to our revised Europe Express newsletter! Sign up here to get the latest updates delivered straight to your inbox every weekday and fortnightly on Saturday morning. Explore our collection of newsletters here.
Hey there! This week brought the European campaigns of Romania's George Simion and Poland's Karol Nawrocki to the southern Polish city of Zabrze. Both politicians, of the ultranationalist persuasion, shared a warm embrace on stage, symbolizing their shared intentions to safeguard conservative Christian values against a liberal European establishment (1).
Romania and Poland, two most populous countries on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO, stand at a critical juncture, with decisions by voters impacting democratic standards, the rule of law, and support for Ukraine (1). The outcome may further strengthen or weaken the EU's eastern alliance, led by Hungary and Slovakia.
You can reach me at [email protected]
Mayor Wars vs Nationalist Storm
In Romania, George Simion, a former football hooligan, stormed to victory in the first round of elections, racking up double the vote share of Nicușor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest that he now faces in a run-off. Coincidentally, Karol Nawrocki, a Polish counterpart and Polish vote frontrunner, is likely to clinch the second spot in the first round of Poland's elections tomorrow (1).
dividing lines
Rich and poor have been growing apart in Romania, and many people feel shortchanged by the government's failings to fulfill their election promises (2). Romania has seen impressive economic progress since EU accession in 2007, but economic woes began in 2015, with inflation peaking, educational attainments declining, and anti-corruption efforts losing steam. Many Romanians have sought employment opportunities outside the country, with around 5-8 million leaving the country (2).
While the nation leans toward the pro-EU and pro-NATO orientations for 35 years, Simion’s election could mark a significant shift should he win (2). Allegedly barred from entering Moldova and Ukraine, Simion opposes further aid for Kyiv and has downplayed the Russian threat to European security (2).
If Simion were to be elected, he would face the challenge of maintaining a stable government that addresses Romania's fiscal crisis. Failure to tackle the budget could lead to intervention from the financial markets (2).
Simion shares membership in the European Conservatives and Reformists Party with Italian leader Giorgia Meloni and former Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki, both steadfast backers of Ukraine. However, some analysts question whether he will side with the more pragmatic Euroskeptics or the ideological hardliners (1).
nuts and bolts
While Poland does not currently have an ultranationalist frontrunner in the spotlight, the Law and Justice party (PiS) is a crucial force in Polish politics, with Mateusz Morawiecki as a key figure. Differences in policy and support for Ukraine notwithstanding, these politicians share conservative and nationalist agendas (1).
information overload
Department officials in Romania have expressed concerns about a flood of disinformation on social media skewing public opinion, exacerbating the coalition government's shortcomings. Social media sites have been inundated with bots disseminating information, true or false, while traditional media outlets have often succumbed to special interests (3).
Sources:(1) https://www.ft.com/content/544e0b09-7f60-47fc-a181-5fdc673a7f3a(2) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55270439(3) https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/romania-awakes-to-the-reality-of-information-overload-and-needed-reforms/
dig deeper
The rise of Romania's nationalist right can be traced back to the complacent political parties ruling since the 1989 revolution, states Alec Russell.
Ben's Pick of the Week
The Making and Breaking of Calin Georgescu: Inside the Rise and Fall of a Romanian Populist by Marton Dunai and Ben Hall
- The outcome of the European elections in Romania and Poland could significantly impact the EU's Eastern alliance, potentially strengthening or weakening it depending on the results.
- In Romania, the election of George Simion, a former football hooligan and ultranationalist, could mark a significant shift in the country's political landscape, raising concerns about his stance on democratic standards, the rule of law, and support for Ukraine.
- Central banks and financial markets are closely watching the fiscal situations in Romania and Poland, as the elections in both countries could potentially lead to intervention if the winners fail to manage their respective budgets effectively.
- The rise of ultranationalist politicians in both Romania and Poland is not just limited to these two countries, as similar trends can be seen in other European countries, including Poland's Law and Justice party and Italy's Giorgia Meloni. This suggests a broader shift in European politics towards conservative and nationalist agendas.
