Contending Beasts on the Battlefield: The Impact of German Tanks on the Equilibrium of the Ukrainian Warfront
The recent decision by Germany to send tanks to Ukraine has marked a significant shift in the military aid provided to the war-torn country. Germany has announced it will send fourteen Leopard 2A6 tanks, a move that has been described as a "first step" in materially supporting Ukraine.
The Leopard 2A6, weighing over sixty tons, is equipped with a 120-millimeter smoothbore main gun (RD 120 L/55), outranging both the T-72B3 and the T-90M. The Leopard 2A6 crew consists of four people, one more than either the T-72B3 or T-90M.
The UK has also pledged to provide Challenger 2 tanks by the end of March, but the timeline for the bulk of the Leopards and US-supplied Abrams tanks could see their delivery anywhere from spring into the summer.
The war's course so far provides evidence that Ukraine's disadvantage in numbers and the technological sophistication of its armored platforms can be offset by superior employment. The delivery of new tanks, including the Leopard 2, will be a major factor in the outcomes of any anticipated spring offensives.
However, Russia continues to maintain a significant numerical and production advantage in tanks and armored vehicles. In 2024, Russia produced and refurbished about 1,550 tanks, a 220% increase since 2022, while Ukraine’s armored brigades have shifted focus toward smaller tank units integrated with infantry brigades rather than large armored formations.
Russia fields approximately 700,000 troops in Ukraine with a military described as larger, more experienced, and better equipped than at the war’s start, despite heavy casualties. Russian forces have also recently gained territory, highlighting their continuing operational capability.
Despite this, Ukraine’s military reforms, Western training, equipment, and tactical improvements have enhanced their battlefield effectiveness, enabling autonomous decisions at lower command levels and better morale. The ongoing Western support, including recent tank deliveries from Germany, strengthens Ukraine’s counteroffensive potential.
Maintenance and support challenges are the greatest factor in determining timelines for delivery. The challenge of logistics, including getting the tanks to Ukraine and maintaining a flow of parts and ammunition, is a significant factor in determining the impact of the new tanks.
Lithuania and Poland have also offered man-portable air defense systems to Ukraine, further bolstering its defenses. Turkey has agreed to allow Ukraine to coproduce TB2 Bayraktar drones, providing a valuable addition to Ukraine's air capabilities.
In summary, while Germany’s tank deliveries aid Ukraine’s fighting capability qualitatively and have tactical significance, Russia’s tank forces remain larger and more numerous by a wide margin, supported by substantial production and refurbishment increases. The battlefield balance is still heavily influenced by Russia’s scale and resources, but Ukraine’s growing Western integration and military reforms improve its operational effectiveness and long-term strategic position.
Both sides have reason to increase their operational tempo and launch offensives to disrupt the status quo, and that is likely in the spring. The outcome of these offensives will depend on a variety of factors, including the employment of the new tanks, the logistical challenges faced by both sides, and the tactical decisions made on the ground.
- The major factor in determining the impact of the new tanks, such as the Leopard 2A6 and Challenger 2, being delivered to Ukraine is the challenge of logistics, including the transportation of the tanks and ensuring a steady flow of parts and ammunition.
- The delivery of drones, like the TB2 Bayraktar, coproduced by Turkey, will provide a valuable addition to Ukraine's air capabilities, bolstering their defenses.
- Lithuania and Poland have pledged to provide man-portable air defense systems to Ukraine, further strengthening their security and Defense against potential aerial attacks.
- The leadership and intelligence gathered from Western training, as well as the technological advantage of their tanks, have significantly enhanced Ukraine's battlefield effectiveness, enabling autonomous decisions and improving their morale during Urban Warfare.
- Despite the qualitative improvements in Ukraine's military capabilities due to Western support, such as the recent tank deliveries from Germany, Russia maintains a significant numerical and production advantage in tanks and armored vehicles, which may influence the battlefield balance in future Offenses.
