Contenders Lacking Favored Status Yet Capable of Surprising Wins in Wimbledon's Last Stages
Wimbledon Semi-Finals: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova - A Surprising Upset in the Making
The Wimbledon semi-finals are set to commence, and one of the most anticipated matches will see Aryna Sabalenka, the top-ranked women's player in the world, face off against Amanda Anisimova, the 13th-ranked player.
Initially, Sabalenka was considered the clear favourite to win the tournament, but Anisimova's impressive form has turned the tables. In their semi-final match, Anisimova is the underdog, but her recent performance, particularly on grass courts, suggests potential value.
Anisimova's powerful, flat groundstrokes and strong serve have been key to her success. She has saved multiple break points and secured crucial wins, demonstrating her ability to challenge top players.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, has been a favourite in betting markets overall for Wimbledon, but Anisimova's semifinal win has shifted the focus. Experts suggest that Anisimova has an implied probability of around 34.5% to win in the final after beating Sabalenka.
Expert betting advice also suggests value in wagering on Anisimova to take a set and the match potentially going to three sets, given her ability to push Sabalenka in a tough three-set semifinal.
Meanwhile, in the men's semi-finals, Carlos Alcaraz is the heavy favourite to defeat Taylor Fritz, with odds of -550 at Wimbledon betting sites. Fritz has been playing at an elite level throughout the tournament, but he has struggled with return games, winning just 20% overall in 2025.
If Fritz can maintain his high return game win rate, he has a chance to knock off Alcaraz in search of his first Wimbledon title. However, Alcaraz has been dominating his service games, winning 89% at Wimbledon and recording 62 aces.
In their head-to-head record, Anisimova leads Sabalenka 5-3. The two players have faced each other eight times, with their most recent meeting at the 2025 Roland-Garros, where Sabalenka emerged victorious in two sets.
As the Wimbledon semi-finals approach, bettors should lean towards Sabalenka to win outright or to cover the spread in her match against Anisimova. In the men's semi-finals, Alcaraz is expected to continue his winning streak, but Fritz's exceptional play throughout the tournament makes for an exciting matchup.
In light of Anisimova's recent form and the close history between the players, the odds for Sabalenka to win outright in the Wimbledon women's semi-final might offer less value, compared to betting on Anisimova to win a set or the match going to three sets.
Despite Fritz's strong performance throughout the tournament, the odds against him winning the men's semi-final against Alcaraz at Wimbledon betting sites could suggest a one-sided contest. However, if Fritz manages to maintain his high return game win rate, he may pose a threat to Alcaraz's title defense.
The upcoming tennis match between top-ranked Sabalenka and 13th-ranked Anisimova in the Wimbledon semi-finals provides an interesting opportunity for sports betting enthusiasts, given Anisimova's underdog status and recent success on grass courts.
