Consulted on various matters: Commission involved
A new analysis by environmental organisations has highlighted the increased risk of flooding in Germany due to climate change, with western and southern river basins and urban areas being most at risk.
The German Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) and other scientific bodies have acknowledged that climate change has led to more frequent and intense rainfall events, increasing the likelihood of extreme flooding events. Events that were statistically expected to occur only once every 100 years may now occur more frequently.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and European Environment Agency (EEA) project that the intensity and frequency of climate extremes, including heavy rainfall and flooding, will continue to rise with further global warming. This could mean that even less severe flood events could become "century floods" in the future.
According to the German Environmental Aid (Deutsche Umwelthilfe, DUH), regions particularly vulnerable to flooding include the Rhine, Elbe, Danube, and Oder river basins, cities along major rivers such as Cologne, Dresden, and Bonn, and upland areas and smaller streams where rapid runoff can cause sudden, severe flooding.
Germany has suffered the highest economic losses from climate-related events in Europe between 1980 and 2023, with floods and heatwaves being the primary causes of damage. Substantial portions of Germany's population, particularly in the west and south, are exposed to flood risk, with recent events affecting thousands of people.
The DUH and other organisations advocate for improved flood management, stricter land use planning, and climate adaptation measures to reduce future risks. However, the DUH states that many federal states are insufficiently prepared for a century flood.
According to the DUH, the risk level for a century flood is particularly high in Bavaria, where over 65,000 residential addresses are particularly exposed to flood risk. Significant damage to people, the environment, cultural heritage, and economic activities is expected to occur on 4.25% of Bavaria's area in a century flood. The risk areas to the state's area are also high in Brandenburg (6.2%), Saxony-Anhalt (5.9%), Baden-Württemberg (4.7%), and Hesse (4.6%).
In conclusion, measures such as renaturation of floodplains and rivers could help water spread better and drain slowly, reducing the risk of flooding. However, the DUH warns that many federal states are doing too little to protect potentially tens of thousands of affected people. It is crucial for Germany to take urgent action to improve flood management and climate adaptation measures to reduce future risks and protect its citizens and infrastructure from the increasing threat of flooding.
| Factor | Historical Context | Climate Change Impact | Most At-Risk Regions | |------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | Flood frequency | 1 event per ~100 years | Now more frequent and intense | Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Oder | | Economic losses | High (€180B, 1980–2023) | Expected to rise with warming | All major river basins | | Population exposure | Thousands affected annually | Increasing due to climate patterns | Urban, low-lying, upland areas| | Adaptation needs | Ongoing | Urgent, needs stronger measures | All flood-prone areas |
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and European Environment Agency (EEA) predict that the increase in global warming will further augment the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, such as heavy rainfall and flooding, in alignment with the environmental science findings.
- In light of the warning from the German Environmental Aid (Deutsche Umwelthilfe, DUH), the frequency of "century floods" might increase with less severe flood events, particularly in regions like Bavaria where over 65,000 residential addresses are especially vulnerable to flood risks.
- As a crucial step towards fostering resilience against climate-change-induced flooding, the DUH and other organizations emphasize the importance of implementing measures like weather-forecasting systems and climate adaptation strategies, such as renaturation of floodplains and rivers, to enhance the capacity of water spread and slow drainage, thereby potentially saving thousands of affected people in flood-prone areas across Germany.
