"The Heat's On" Guttenberg: Union Might be Forced into Deal with AfD at 35% Support
Conservative politician Guttenberg suggests that, with a 35% support for the AfD party, the Union could potentially find themselves in a subordinate role in the upcoming German elections.
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former Minister of Economics and Defense, hints at a possible partnership between the Union (CDU/CSU) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) after the next federal election. "I won't rule it out," Guttenberg tells Spiegel.
According to Guttenberg's estimate, the AfD might hit 35% in the 2029 election, should they fail to address the pressing issues the new government must tackle within two years and regain the public's trust. However, he hopes the AfD doesn't grow as influential as he suggests.
If the AfD reaches the said percentage, according to Guttenberg, it may be difficult to exclude them from governing, given the political climate of the time. "In doubt, the junior partner becomes," Guttenberg says. To prevent this scenario, he emphasizes that the coming years are crucial. "The pressure is building. These two years will be decisive."
As per the current polls, the AfD stands at 25% alongside the Union, while the SPD (15%) trails, followed by the Greens (12%) and Die Linke (10%). The BSW and FDP are at 3% each, according to the survey.
Guttenberg Pines for Truth with the Public
When asked about reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg is clear: "Yes, if we are honest with the public." Especially in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he believes the government should have reconsidered the conscription issue in 2014 and 2022. However, he defends his decision to suspend conscription during his tenure, citing budget constraints. Looking back, he admits that he would have preferred to keep conscription if he had a choice and a substantial financial cushion, stating he would have performed "a few somersaults" for a 100-billion special fund.
Source: ntv.de, mpa
Further Insights
Current Predictions for the 2029 German Federal Election
The latest polls indicate the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) capturing about 25.7% of the vote, followed by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 24.5%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) polls around 15.4%, while the Greens (Grüne) have about 11.6% support, and Die Linke (The Left) stands at 10%[1]. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) both failed to meet the 5% threshold in the recent election and are currently polling below that level[2].
Potential Coalition Possibilities
While the AfD is considered a far-right party, and the CDU/CSU traditionally leans center-right, there is limited discussion of a potential coalition between the two in mainstream German politics. A coalition between the CDU/CSU and other parties like the Greens or the FDP, if they meet the threshold, is more likely. A coalition with the SPD is less probable due to the SPD's current stance against a grand coalition[4].
- Given the 2029 federal election predictions, the common foreign and security policy of the potential coalition government could involve negotiations with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as they are projected to have a high support of 24.5%, according to the latest polls.
- In the aftermath of the debacle that saw the AfD's surge in power, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a former Minister of Economics and Defense, highlighted the importance of a community policy that addresses the public's concerns and increases trust in the government.
- Guttenberg's preferred policy-and-legislation changes include reintroducing conscription, which he believes would be popular among the general public, particularly in light of current foreign affairs events.
- The politics surrounding conscription have been controversial, with Guttenberg acknowledging that he would have kept the common foreign and security policy of conscription if he had a substantial financial cushion during his tenure.
