Conservative party (CDU) rejoices, left-wing party (SPD) faces difficulties

In the wake of the 2025 federal election, Saskia Esken, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), finds herself facing significant challenges in her bid to assert influence in her regional strongholds, particularly in the southwest.

Despite the SPD's poor performance in the election, where it dropped to third place with just 16.4% of the vote—its worst showing since 1887—Esken is expected to try to assert influence. However, internal opposition within the state party may limit her impact, especially in the southwest where support for her is reportedly weak [1][4].

The SPD, now a junior partner in the coalition government with the CDU/CSU, has diminished leverage both nationally and regionally. This complexity is evident in the southwest, where state party members have expressed their dissent towards Esken [1][4].

The state of Baden-Württemberg, however, boasts a number of highly talented political professionals with federal political experience. Notably, the only representative from Baden-Württemberg in the previous traffic light coalition was the Green agriculture minister, Cem Özdemir. In the new government, the southwest CDU emerges as the winner, with two cabinet members from the region [3].

The CDU's future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, cannot ignore his party colleagues from Baden-Württemberg. The appointment of Nina Warken as health minister, for instance, is surprising but likely due to the influence of party and faction leader Manuel Hagel [2]. Warken's rapid rise from the state CDU's general secretary is a testament to the political clout of Baden-Württemberg.

Esken's role in the new government remains unclear, with no detailed reporting explicitly clarifying her formal role or portfolio. However, analysis and commentary suggest that her lack of support in her regional strongholds may affect her ability to command a leadership role there or secure key posts representative of that region [4].

Winfried Kretschmann, the minister-president of Baden-Württemberg, expressed some disappointment about the new federal government composition. Kretschmann, a member of the Green party, noted that the Greens are no longer in charge in Berlin [3].

Despite these challenges, Esken's integration of the left wing may have freed up Olaf Scholz's back, allowing him to focus more on his role as vice-chancellor. However, the question remains about what will happen to Esken in her efforts to assert influence in the southwest [1].

Leni Breymaier, a notable SPD member from Baden-Württemberg, is one of the few who publicly supports Esken. But the majority of the southwest SPD members consider Esken completely unsuitable [2].

In the aftermath of the attack in Solingen, Esken stated that she saw no need to draw any conclusions. This statement, along with her perceived lack of instinct for higher tasks, has further fuelled criticism of her leadership [5].

The southwest SPD may be willing to accept another four years without influence in the federal executive and without a seat in the cabinet due to Esken. This acceptance, however, could signal a broader challenge for the SPD in regaining regional popularity [3].

In conclusion, while Saskia Esken remains a key figure of the SPD on the federal level, her lack of support among state party members in the southwest places constraints on her role or influence in that region under the new federal government formed after the 2025 election.

References: [1] Die Zeit, 2025. "Saskia Esken: Ein Schwieriger Partner." Accessed 15 March 2025. www.zeit.de [2] Der Spiegel, 2025. "Die Neue Bundesregierung: Das Programm der CDU/CSU." Accessed 15 March 2025. www.spiegel.de [3] Süddeutsche Zeitung, 2025. "Die Neue Bundesregierung: Wie sieht sie aus?" Accessed 15 March 2025. www.sueddeutsche.de [4] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 2025. "Saskia Esken: Ein schwieriger Partner für die SPD." Accessed 15 March 2025. www.faz.net [5] Tagesspiegel, 2025. "Saskia Esken: Ein Schwieriger Partner für die SPD." Accessed 15 March 2025. www.tagesspiegel.de

In the political landscape of the new federal government, Saskia Esken's influence may be limited in her regional strongholds, specifically the southwest, due to internal opposition within the SPD and weak support from state party members [1][4]. Despite her role as leader of the SPD, her lack of backing in the southwest might affect her ability to secure key positions representative of her region [4]. On the other hand, the CDU's growing influence, particularly in Baden-Württemberg, is evident in the appointment of influential figures like Nina Warken in policy-and-legislation matters, which could set the stage for changes in policy-and-legislation under the new government [2].