Conservative ÖVP party suffered significant losses, predominantly to the far-right FPÖ party.
Lost Votes, Gained Support: Vienna's Voting Shuffle
Crunching the numbers, it's apparent that the FPO benefited greatly from the Vienna Municipal Elections, predominantly at the ÖVP's expense. As per the voter analysis by the Foresight Institute for APA and ORF, this shift was most noticeable among ÖVP voters. Out of the 2020 ÖVP voters, a mere 37% opted for them again, whereas 27% backed the FPO this time around.
- Breaking Down the Votes: A Reverse Perspective
The tide is evident in reverse too. In 2020, 29% of FPO voters cast their ballots for the ÖVP. Interestingly, a significant 26% switched to the SPÖ this time, while 27% stood firm with FPO.
A Massive 40,000 ÖVP Voters Jump Ship to the FPO
The shift from ÖVP to FPO can also be seen in raw numbers: Out of the 148,000 ÖVP voters in 2020, a staggering 40,000 voted for FPO this time. The SPÖ absorbed 24,000 votes, and NEOS received 18,000.
The SPÖ managed to hold onto a strong 71% of its 2020 voters, with only a minimal loss of 36,000 votes to the FPO. Approximately 11% or 33,000 SPÖ voters skipped the election, and there were minimal shifts to other parties.
The SPÖ's Red-Winning Campaign Flops
The SPÖ's campaign, fueled by the slogan "Ludwig will win anyway," aimed to lure red votes, but it fell flat. Most of its new voters (29%) came from its 2020 supporters, followed by the Greens (29%), SPÖ (11%), others (11%), and non-voters (8%).
The Strache team mostly rallyied to the FPO: 54% of HC voters from 2020 voted for the ÖVP this time. Only 18% opted for the new list of former FPO vice-chancellor, with 18% abstaining from voting.
Behind the Scenes: The Root Causes
While the election results themselves do not reveal the specific reasons for the ÖVP's election loss, broader trends and insights from the elections may offer some context:
- Rising Populism: The FPO's increase in Vienna is part of a broader trend toward populism, particularly in suburban areas[1]. This suggests that some voters may have been drawn to the FPO's populist stance or a desire for change.
- Disenchantment with Traditional Parties: The ÖVP experienced losses in other contexts, such as the 2024 legislative elections, potentially indicating dissatisfaction among some of its supporters[2]. This discontent could have led some ÖVP voters to seek alternatives like the FPO.
- FPO's Recovery: After the "Ibiza scandal" in 2019, the FPO's strong comeback in the 2025 Vienna elections indicates a successful rebranding or strategic campaign that resonated with voters[1][3].
- Political Climate and Policies: The election results reflect a shift in political preferences, with voters potentially seeking more drastic changes in policies such as housing, transport, and climate action[1].
Without specific information on ÖVP voter shifts, these factors provide a backdrop for understanding why some voters might have shifted towards the FPÖ.
- Profit derived from ÖVP loss: The FPO's significant gain in votes comes at a cost for the ÖVP, as the FPO was able to gain support from 40,000 of the 2020 ÖVP voters, with the SPÖ and NEOS also receiving a portion of the former ÖVP votes.
- Policy and legislation shaping political climate: The election results in Vienna reflect a shift in political preferences, with voters potentially seeking more drastic changes in policies such as housing, transport, and climate action, which could have contributed to the populist surge seen in suburban areas and the success of the FPO's rebranding or strategic campaign.
