Congress exercises authority over the census count, not Trump, according to a Trump administration official.
The proposed idea of conducting a new census before the scheduled 2030 count, as suggested by former President Trump and some Republican officials, is facing significant legal and operational hurdles. The U.S. Constitution mandates a decennial census every 10 years, with the next regularly scheduled census in 2030.
The legal implications of such a move are complex, as there is currently no legal mechanism to conduct an unscheduled "snap" census in between these periods. This raises constitutional and procedural challenges. Trump's order to initiate a new census that excludes people living in the states without legal status directly conflicts with the 14th Amendment, which requires the census to count the "whole number of persons" in each state regardless of citizenship or immigration status. Legal experts anticipate that such changes would immediately provoke lawsuits.
From a feasibility standpoint, the Census Bureau, which already struggles with the enormous logistical complexity of conducting the census every 10 years, would face a "gargantuan task" if forced to conduct a new census prematurely without proper planning, funding, and preparation. The agency is presently preparing for the 2030 census, including a 2026 field test, and currently plans to hire fewer temporary workers and rely more heavily on technology.
Political motivations could further complicate an early census, as plans to exclude certain populations or alter apportionment counts are controversial and could reduce public participation, especially among immigrant communities, thereby undermining the census’s accuracy and legitimacy.
Congressional bills echoing these initiatives exist, calling for a new census and redistricting before the 2026 midterms to potentially benefit Republican representation. However, even these proposals face formidable legal and procedural hurdles.
In summary, the legal requirements set by the Constitution and the 14th Amendment, combined with the immense operational challenges and funding issues faced by the Census Bureau, make conducting a new census before 2030 not only legally questionable but practically unrealistic. The current process is geared toward the 2030 decennial census, and any major changes proposed now would likely be blocked by courts and challenged politically.
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