Conflicts heightening between Russia and Azerbaijan – understanding the cause behind the current escalation
In recent years, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has taken a turn for the worse, with a series of events escalating diplomatic, judicial, and law enforcement confrontations. Here's a look at some of the key events that have contributed to the deterioration of ties between the two nations.
**Azerbaijani Passenger Aircraft Incident (December 2024):** A major turning point occurred when a Russian missile defense unit reportedly shot down an Azerbaijani passenger aircraft near the Georgia-Russia border, resulting in the deaths of 38 civilians. Russia expressed regret, but Azerbaijan pursued legal action in international courts and President Aliyev notably declined to attend Moscow's Victory Day parade in May 2025—an absence widely seen as a diplomatic snub.
**Yekaterinburg Raid and Deaths (June 2025):** Russian law enforcement carried out an operation in Yekaterinburg targeting alleged members of an organized criminal group composed of ethnic Azerbaijanis. Two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, died in custody under suspicious circumstances, with eyewitnesses and leaked footage suggesting beatings and torture. Russian authorities attributed one death to heart failure and launched an investigation into the other, but forensic reports indicated blunt force trauma as the cause of death.
**Azerbaijani Diplomatic and Judicial Response:** Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry lodged a formal protest, summoned the Russian ambassador, and demanded a full investigation. The Azerbaijani government also cancelled all cultural events involving Russian state and private institutions, and suspended parliamentary visits.
**Arrests of Russian Citizens in Azerbaijan (July 2025):** As tensions escalated, Azerbaijani authorities arrested eight Russian citizens on charges of drug trafficking and cybercrime, imposing four-month detention orders, with several suspects appearing in court with visible injuries.
**Raid on Russian Media in Baku:** Azerbaijan raided the Baku office of the Russian state news agency Sputnik, arrested staff members, and shut down its operations, accusing two journalists of alleged links to the Russian FSB.
The current relationship is at a low point, characterized by mutual judicial and law enforcement actions, suspension of cultural and diplomatic contacts, and an uncertain trajectory. Analysts describe the situation as a standoff, with uncertain prospects for either escalation or rapprochement in the near term.
The crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight has escalated tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan, with each side taking reciprocal actions that have pushed bilateral relations to their lowest point in recent memory. Azerbaijan's President Aliyev discussed the tensions with Russia in a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with Zelenskyy expressing support for Baku.
| Event/Tension Factor | Date | Details/Impact | |--------------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Passenger aircraft downed by Russia | Dec 2024 | 38 civilian deaths; diplomatic rift; international legal action by Azerbaijan | | Aliyev skips Moscow Victory Parade | May 2025 | Diplomatic snub; visible cooling of relations | | Yekaterinburg raid/deaths in custody | June 27, 2025 | Two Azerbaijani nationals die in suspicious circumstances; allegations of torture and abuse | | Azerbaijani diplomatic protest | Late June 2025 | Cultural events suspended, parliamentary visits cancelled, Russian envoy summoned | | Arrests of Russians in Azerbaijan | July 1, 2025 | Eight Russians detained on drug and cybercrime charges | | Sputnik raid/arrests in Baku | June–July 2025 | Russian state media office shut, staff arrested, journalists accused of FSB links |
- The downing of the Azerbaijani passenger aircraft by Russia in December 2024 and the subsequent deaths of 38 civilians have prompted strong actions from Azerbaijan, including a call for an international investigation and the cancellation of cultural events involving Russian institutions.
- The Yekaterinburg raid and deaths in June 2025, where two ethnic Azerbaijanis died under suspicious circumstances in Russian custody, have added to the escalation of tensions between the two nations, with Azerbaijan lodging a formal diplomatic protest and suspension of parliamentary visits.
