Conflict Resolution Prospects: Perspectives on Ukraine, Russia, and the Path to Successful Conclusion
The United States is committed to preserving strategic stability and rebuilding European security arrangements, with a focus on developing a more expansive, transparent, and verifiable arms control infrastructure to succeed New START. This approach forms the basis of the U.S. theory of victory in Ukraine, aimed at denying Russia's strategy of outlasting American interest and patience.
According to this theory, the U.S. will sustain robust, long-term support to Ukraine to prevent Russia from believing it can win by waiting for Western resolve to fade. This strategy aligns with the U.S. 2022 National Security Strategy, which emphasizes sustaining international order through collective defense, supporting democratic partners, and countering revisionist powers that threaten global stability.
The U.S. strategy seeks to integrate military, economic, and diplomatic tools to deter aggression, reinforce alliances, and uphold international norms. This is reflected in the support provided to Ukraine as a frontline state resisting Russian aggression.
Recent developments under the Trump administration's framework suggest a transactional element to U.S. support. This includes linking aid and cooperation to mutual economic and strategic benefits, such as securing access to Ukraine’s rare-earth mineral resources to reduce U.S. dependence on China and strengthen the American industrial base. At the same time, the Trump approach advocates for a defined limit to U.S. involvement, seeking greater European burden-sharing and offers potential security guarantees to Ukraine short of NATO membership, recognizing Russian sensitivities around NATO expansion.
The U.S. will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. The Budapest Memorandum, which provided assurances on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, has been rendered worthless due to Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014.
The objectives of U.S. policy regarding Ukraine, as stated by President Joe Biden, include a democratic, independent, prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression. This involves providing Ukrainian and Western diplomats with the best options for diplomatic resolution by maintaining a steady and assured pace of support to the Ukrainian armed forces, preventing Putin from seeking a quick victory through appalling means, and ensuring sustained support for the Ukrainian armed forces.
In summary, the U.S. strategy in Ukraine is a comprehensive approach that reflects a blend of enduring commitment to Ukraine’s defense aligned with broader U.S. strategic goals of deterring authoritarian revisionism while seeking viable pathways to conflict resolution. The U.S., along with its allies, has been providing rapid support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion last February.
- The U.S. strategy in Ukraine aims to ensure national security by rebuilding European security arrangements, fostering transparency and verifiability in arms control, and sustaining a more expansive infrastructure to succeed New START.
- The U.S. strategy for Ukraine is designed to counter Russia's strategic moves, particularly their strategy of outlasting American interest and patience, by providing robust, long-term support.
- The U.S. strategy incorporates the use of military, economic, and diplomatic tools to deter aggression, uphold international norms, and reinforce alliances, as evidenced by the support provided to Ukraine.
- The Trump administration's approach to U.S. support for Ukraine involved a transactional element, linking aid and cooperation to mutual economic and strategic benefits, such as securing access to Ukraine's rare-earth mineral resources.
- The U.S. policy towards Ukraine seeks to prevent the use or threat of nuclear weapons by any power, given Russia's previous disregard for agreements like the Budapest Memorandum.
