Conflict escalating between Russia and Azerbaijan: Understanding the current circumstances
In the South Caucasus region, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have taken a turn for the worse, as a series of incidents have highlighted worsening bilateral ties and broader geopolitical shifts.
The most recent flashpoint occurred on June 27, 2025, when Russian special forces conducted a police operation in Yekaterinburg, targeting ethnic Azerbaijani individuals linked to a murder case from 2001. The operation resulted in the deaths of brothers Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, and several others injured, triggering outrage in Azerbaijan. Baku described the killings as "ethnically motivated public and deliberate unlawful actions" and condemned what it called a pattern of systematic violence by Russian authorities.
In response, Azerbaijan took several retaliatory measures. The country's authorities summoned Russia's chargé d’affaires to protest the killings, raided the Russian state news agency Sputnik Azerbaijan in Baku and arrested its editor-in-chief and director, accusing them of espionage and connections to Russia’s FSB security service. Azerbaijan also canceled cultural events associated with Russia and increased sharp rhetoric against Moscow, including criticisms of "imperial behavior" toward former Soviet republics.
The tensions also stem from an unresolved earlier incident in December 2024, when a Russian missile accidentally shot down an Azerbaijani Airlines plane near Grozny, killing 38 people. Azerbaijan has demanded a full investigation, formal acknowledgment, and compensation, but Russia has handled the matter quietly behind closed doors, which has fueled Azerbaijani resentment.
Analysts suggest that Azerbaijan has been navigating a more independent and balanced foreign policy, avoiding direct alignment with anti-Russian coalitions but standing firm in bilateral disputes. Russia views this and Azerbaijan’s assertiveness as frustrating, contributing to a broader pattern of deteriorating ties. There are concerns over increased anti-Azerbaijani hostility in Russia, including discrimination and harassment of Azerbaijani migrants.
Despite the strained relations, it's important to note that Azerbaijan and Russia have historically had strong economic and cultural ties. Russia serves as a key transport corridor for Azerbaijan's trade with Iran and other Middle Eastern partners. Azerbaijan has also bought oil and natural gas from Russia to meet internal demand. Azerbaijani businessmen control significant assets in various sectors of the Russian economy.
The diplomatic fallout between the two nations has extended to the political sphere as well. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, like Vladimir Putin of Russia, has suppressed political foes and restricted independent media. However, in May, a Ukrainian foreign minister visited Baku, indicating closer ties with Kyiv.
The Prosecutor General's Office in Azerbaijan attributed the deaths in Yekaterinburg to "post-traumatic shock caused by multiple injuries" and physical abuse by Russian police. Russian President Putin issued an apology for the "tragic incident" but did not admit responsibility. Azerbaijan demanded a probe into the deaths, punishment for those responsible, and compensation for the victims in response to the Russian Foreign Ministry's complaint.
In 2020, Azerbaijan's military, with support from ally Turkey, recaptured territories held by Armenian forces for nearly three decades, marking a significant shift in the region's power dynamics. As the situation continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how these recent tensions will shape the future of Russia-Azerbaijan relations.
- Amidst the escalating tensions, investigative videos and general-news reports have emerged, shedding light on the increasing hostility between Russia and Azerbaijan, particularly following the police operation in Yekaterinburg.
- As a response to the murder case from 2001, the arrest of the editor-in-chief and director of Sputnik Azerbaijan is a demonstration of Azerbaijan's efforts to scrutinize business ties with Russia, particularly in the realm of media and news agencies.
- The ongoing political and economical disputes have also extended to the realm of crime and politics, with the international community closely monitoring the procedural justice sought by Azerbaijan in response to the tragic incident in Yekaterinburg, as well as the resolution of the unresolved earlier incident involving the downed Azerbaijani Airlines plane.
