A Clash in the Middle East: Israel vs. Iran - Understanding Germany's Involvement
Iran-Israel Conflict: This connection to Germany's war suggested - Conflict Between Israel and Iran: Examining Germany's Involvement
The looming and potentially devastating clash between Israel and Iran in the Middle East has ignited a discussion in Germany about its alliance with Israel, with the conflict in Iran now added to the mix.
Six reasons that make this conflict relevant to Germany:
- Israel: Negotiations, Criticism, and National Importance
The continued existence and safety of the Israel nation, given the six million Jewish lives lost in the Holocaust at the hands of Nazi Germany, holds importance for the German Government. The federal government identifies this as an obligation to partake in de-escalation efforts through mediation.
Recently, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock embarked on a diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman to explore potential avenues for restarting negotiations. On this Wednesday, ongoing crisis negotiations result in Baerbock meeting her Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi in Berlin. Baerbock has also been in contact with Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid via phone.
Qatar serves as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas during the Gaza conflict, while Oman maintains strong connections to Tehran. Behind the scenes, preparations for a new mediation mission may be underway that involves joint efforts from Europeans and Arab nations neighboring Iran.
- Solid German Ties with Iran
Over the years, Germany has enjoyed favorable relations with Iran, which Baerbock hopes to strengthen further. Germany maintains the largest diplomatic presence in Tehran among European nations such as the UK. For many years, Germany, France, and the UK have been involved in negotiations with Iran aimed at preventing the country from developing nuclear weapons.
- The Importance of Middle East Stability for Germany
If Iran Were to become a new nuclear state, it would further destabilize the already unstable Middle East region and increase international uncertainty, a situation unwelcomed by Germany. Foreign policy spokesperson for the Union faction Norbert Röttgen stated that the attack could create a strategic advantage for the Arab world by potentially hindering Iran's nuclear program, making it possible to engage in more reasonable negotiations.
Although the Israeli government's hardline approach in the Gaza Strip is met with skepticism in Berlin, Germany's own security depends on preventing the Middle East from descending further into chaos.
- Rising Costs for Fuels and Heating
The escalation has resulted in consequences for everyday Germans. The war is contributing to rising oil prices, reflected in higher costs at the gas stations. On Monday, a liter of Super E10 cost 1.695 euros, and a liter of diesel cost 1.586 euros, each adding approximately four cents more compared to pre-war prices.
Additional costs at gas stations may be experienced, but an ADAC spokesperson predicts that prices won't drastically increase.
The recent decline in heating oil prices has already started to reverse. Data from the comparison portal Verivox shows that 100 liters of heating oil, which cost around 94 euros (as of June 16), now cost an average of 87 euros in May.
- Oil Prices as a Risk of Inflation
The fear of an oil crisis remains high. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transportation route located at the southern tip of Iran. While the oil price for Brent crude has increased modestly to around 74 dollars per barrel (159 liters), rapidly escalating conflict could cause the oil price to soar above the 80-dollar mark and possibly surpass 120 dollars, a price not seen since May 2022 following Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Rapidly increasing oil prices would fuel inflation in Germany, taking away purchasing power from consumers. Falling energy prices played a significant role in bringing inflation back to a manageable rate of 2.1% in May.
- Threat to the German Economy
The war in the Middle East poses a risk to the German economy, which is in the process of recovering after years of crisis. The war could also have an impact on inflation, which Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently warned about. "If there were to be a prolonged, severe conflict, oil prices could skyrocket," explained Nagel, which would lead to noticeable changes in the economy and prices.
- Turbulence in Stock Markets
Although stock markets have managed to hold steady so far, the conflict has left its mark on Germany's benchmark index. The DAX has drifted significantly away from its previous record of 24,479 points, and prices have continued to fall on Tuesday.
The conflict introduces an added risk factor that will likely keep the stock market in a tense state for the foreseeable future, along with the ongoing global trade dispute with US President Joe Biden.
- Airline Disruptions
Many airlines, including Emirates and Lufthansa, have canceled or re-routed flights in the region. Lufthansa has suspended flights to and from Tehran and Tel Aviv until the end of July, while flights to and from Amman (Jordan), Erbil (Iraq), and Beirut (Lebanon) have been canceled until June 20.
Lufthansa Cargo's freight division has also been affected by the disruptions, and the impact on tourism is expected to be minimal, as the Middle East is not a popular travel destination for Germans.
The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Council regulation on the approximation of the laws of the Member States relating to the protection of the environment, highlighting Germany's commitment to addressing global issues beyond military conflicts and politics, such as general news related to environmental protection.
The potential escalation in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran at odds, may indirectly lead to increased oil prices, which could have severe implications for environmental policies in terms of promoting renewable energy and mitigating dependency on fossil fuels, a concern shared by the European Union and Germany.
