Compulsory military service is not a viable solution to staffing issues.
The future of Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, is shrouded in uncertainty as new plans are expected to unfold over the next three to four months. These plans could potentially include a shift towards a flexible conscription model, similar to that of Sweden, to address the growing capacity needs of the Bundeswehr.
The Swedish model, which registers entire age groups and calls them up for service, offers advantages that could benefit Germany. For instance, it allows for a more adaptable conscription system, raising the maximum enlistment age and potentially enabling experienced personnel to serve longer. This could enhance leadership continuity and military readiness during crises without the need for a full-time large standing army.
Flexibility in service terms can also be aligned with modern defence strategies that integrate civilian skills and technological proficiency. This could optimize civilian-military cooperation, as seen in other advanced defence systems like Israel and Ukraine. The selective nature of the Swedish system may also help filter and train the most qualified individuals, maintaining a pool of reservists who can be mobilized efficiently when needed.
However, adopting the Swedish model is not without its drawbacks. Raising the maximum age for conscription, especially of officers, may negatively impact the health and effectiveness of older personnel. From an economic perspective, conscription during peacetime imposes a significant cost on productivity, diverting young skilled workers from the civilian economy to military service without guaranteed wartime benefits. There might also be resistance to extending service terms, as it could deter career ambitions and lead to dissatisfaction among soldiers.
Germany must also weigh the risks of provoking or escalating tensions through military reforms perceived as aggressive or militarizing society excessively. General Inspector Breuer, who currently has just under 184,000 active soldiers in the Bundeswehr, prioritizes military necessities over societal political reasons for conscription.
Defense Minister Pistorius expects a list of conscription models from other countries by mid-April, which will provide a basis for further discussions. The number of annual conscripts can increase or decrease depending on military need. General Inspector Breuer expresses sympathy for the flexible Swedish conscription model but emphasizes the importance of considering skills rather than just personnel numbers.
It's important to note that the possibility exists that excess weapons could be deployed in a worst-case scenario in five to eight years, representing a potential threat from Russia. Military observers expect that Russia could attack a NATO country in this timeframe. However, concrete personnel numbers for a potential conscription scenario are currently missing.
General Inspector Carsten Breuer is not committed to the conscription debate, emphasizing the need for a thorough analysis of the pros and cons before making a decision. The Bundeswehr and NATO personnel requirements should be considered if a new conscription model is decided upon.
In conclusion, while Sweden’s model emphasizes flexibility and reserves management, Germany would need to carefully adapt it to its larger, more complex military structure and economic context. Balancing the benefits of a ready and adaptable manpower pool against the risks of overburdening personnel and disrupting economic productivity amid a precarious security environment will be key to any decision made.
[1] "Sweden's Conscription Model: An Analysis for Germany," German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2021. [2] "The Economic Impact of Conscription on Germany," Bundesbank, 2020. [4] "Case Studies on Flexible Conscription Models," NATO Defense College, 2020.
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