Saxony and Thuringia's Political Battlefield Heats Up
It's crunch time in Saxony and Thuringia, with the political arena intensifying ahead of the vote. A recent survey by Forsa on behalf of RTL reveals a nail-biting race between the CDU and the AfD in Saxony. The CDU, led by Minister President Michael Kretschmer, holds a narrow lead with 33%, while the AfD, under their command, trails closely with 31%. This 1% increase for the AfD represents a tightening in the race since the initial survey in early August.
Intriguingly, the SPD in Saxony also shows a 1% increase, climbing to 7%. On the flip side, the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, takes a 1% dip, now at 12%. The Green Party (6%) and the Left (3%) maintain their scores. The FDP hovers below the 3% mark, making them look much like other minor parties collectively accounting for 8%.
In Thuringia, shifts compared to early August are minimal. The AfD, led by Björn Höcke, keeps its leading position with 30%, while the CDU sees a minor increase to 22%. The Left, under the leadership of Minister President Bodo Ramelow, also experiences a slight improvement, rising from 13% to 14%. The BSW loses 1% (17%), while the SPD's figures remain constant at 7%. The Greens are yet to make it to the state parliament with a 4% score. The combined forces of the remaining parties, including the FDP, total 6%.
The impact of the Solingen knife attack on the election seems less significant than initially presumed. In Saxony, only 18% believe the terrorist act will decisively influence their voting decision. Conversely, in Thuringia, the Solingen aftermath may be more influential: 35% claim it will significantly affect their vote, 48% report a moderate influence, and 9% admit no impact at all.
Forsa acknowledges that the decision-making process in both states is still unfinished. AfD and BSW supporters usually avoid postal voting, preferring to vote at polling stations. This leaves them plenty of time to reconsider their stance before the final tally.
Forsa collected data for RTL Germany between August 27 and 29, 2024, using a population-representative panel online and phone surveys. The sample sizes for Saxony and Thuringia were 1012 and 1005 respondents, respectively, with a margin of error tolerance of +/- 3 percentage points.
As the polls close in, it's clear that the race between the CDU and AfD in Saxony is a fierce contest. With the AfD's historical stronghold in the region, they're poised to continue their dominance, albeit facing stiff competition from the CDU. Meanwhile, the national picture paints the CDU/CSU ahead with 29%, while the AfD reports a 21% score[1].
Regional performance is not explicitly stated for the CDU/CSU in Saxony and Thuringia, although the party has typically excelled in western German states, while the AfD maintains a stronghold in the former East German states[5]. Lastly, it's worth noting the AfD's success in Germany's political landscape, notably becoming the first far-right party in Germany since the Nazi Party to win a plurality of seats in a state election in Thuringia during the 2024 elections[3].
Further Reads:
[1] [2]German federal election results, 2025 [3]Wikipedia, [4]Wikipedia, [5]BBC,
