Communication from the Core of Quebec
The Parti Québécois (PQ) has secured a decisive victory in the Arthabaska by-election, marking a significant comeback for the party that was once believed to be on its last legs. This resurgence comes as a direct challenge to the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, which has been experiencing a decline in voter support.
The PQ's victory was driven by growing voter dissatisfaction with Premier François Legault's CAQ, as well as the PQ's appeal as a stronger alternative. The CAQ, which once held a comfortable majority in the riding, saw a dramatic collapse in local support, sliding from 52% of the vote in 2022 to just over 7% in the by-election.
One of the key factors contributing to the PQ's resurgence was voter disillusionment with the CAQ's handling of governance and Premier Legault's leadership style. This dissatisfaction was reflected in the CAQ's third consecutive by-election defeat and sharply reduced vote share in Arthabaska.
Another significant factor was the PQ's positioning as the main alternative for Quebecers, particularly with concerns about cultural identity and uncertainty fueling support for the sovereigntist party. The PQ's candidate, Alex Boissonneault, a former journalist and native of the riding, ran on addressing social contract issues, framing the government as not delivering adequate returns for high taxes. This message resonated with voters locally.
The PQ's victory was also a demonstration of political momentum, as it marked the party's third consecutive by-election gain. This trend suggests a clear rise in support ahead of the 2026 provincial election, further undermining the CAQ's electoral dominance.
The CAQ's decline was marked by electoral disarray, as they finished a distant fourth in a riding they had comfortably won previously. The electorate appeared ready to move away from CAQ policies and leadership, with the Quebec Conservative Party surging to second place, pushing the CAQ further down and splitting the vote.
The CAQ's leader, François Legault, acknowledged the result in Arthabaska as symptomatic of the disappointment of Quebecers in his leadership. He has little time to reverse the trend, as each passing day makes it heavier.
The PQ's rise in the polls positions them as the main party to replace the CAQ, and recruitment for the PQ is expected to be easier due to this rise in the polls. Notable figures attracted to the PQ include Dr. Melissa Généreux.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a supporter of Alex Boissonneault, was present in the packed room during the election results. The victory will provide a welcome reinforcement to the small PQ team at the National Assembly. Mr. Duhaime, the leader of the PQ, is committed to the long term and represents a new right, primarily focused on economic issues and uninterested in moral or identity issues.
Mr. Boissonneault's victory was confirmed despite Pascal Bérube trying to protest. Keven Brasseur, the CAQ's candidate, gave a sober and dignified speech, revealing an upcoming cabinet shuffle by early September. The CAQ held its gathering at the CARA complex, and despite the defeat, the faces were not too downcast.
In conclusion, the PQ's comeback was largely fueled by opposition to CAQ governance, strategic local campaigning, and perceived cultural anxieties, while the CAQ's decline was due to loss of voter confidence and inability to maintain its previous dominance in Arthabaska. This by-election result serves as a warning sign for the CAQ and a boost for the PQ as they prepare for the 2026 provincial election.
[1] Le Devoir [2] La Presse [3] CBC News [4] Radio-Canada
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