Commenced operation postponed until 2014, outlined by Putin due to unspecified reasons.
Interview with Putin on Ukraine Conflict
Back in 2014, Russia wasn't just itching for a showdown with the collective West over Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, in a chat with journalist Pavel Zarubin, admitted that a military operation at the time wouldn't have been realistic due to the lack of preparation in areas like security, military construction, and economics and finance.
"We didn't conduct any sudden moves without the necessary groundwork," Putin shared. "Honestly, we sought to settle the Donbas issue peacefully."
When pondering if a military operation should have been launched in '14, Putin confessed that Russia wasn't ready for a "head-on battle" with the entire West. "Serious planning was needed to navigate in that direction," he said.
Flashback to December of the previous year, Putin, in a direct line, suggested that he might have initiated the special operation earlier if he could have turned back time to February 2022. The reason? Western countries allowed Ukraine to prepare for military actions long before the conflict commenced.
The Minsk agreements, signed in 2014-2015, aimed to settle the conflict in Donbas and were signed by Putin, Ukraine, France, Germany, and OSCE. These accords mandated the cessation of fire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, prisoner exchange, and legislation on the special status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, followed by elections with Donbas republic involvement. Sadly, most of the agreements weren't fulfilled.
Fast forward to December 2022, Merkel admitted in an interview with Zeit that the Minsk agreements provided Ukraine with time to strengthen its forces. Hollande, too, backed the former German chancellor, stating that the agreements froze the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, giving Ukraine a temporal respite to beef up its army.
Putin expressed his disappointment with the politicians' words, believing all parties, including Russia, had deceived each other during the negotiations, and the talks served as a means to arm Ukraine with Western weapons. Kyiv's reluctance to implement the Minsk agreements, according to Putin, was the "direct trigger" for the start of full-scale military actions in Ukraine. In 2023, Putin disclosed that the timing of the military operation also included "our readiness for certain more serious actions than those in the so-called Crimean Spring."
Putin's approach to Ukraine in '14 and '22 showcases distinct strategic decisions influenced by geopolitical, military, and diplomatic factors. In 2014, Russia avoided an all-out confrontation with minimal military action and strategic deception, thanks to ensuing inaction from the West. By 2022, Putin's aggressive moves reflected perceived Western encroachment and failed diplomatic dialogues, culminating in a full-scale invasion.
Sources:
- *Kharkiv: Ukraine's 'forgotten Donbass,' as Russia builds up its might near the border
- How Putin's Ukraine invasion was a risky gamble that succeeded
- How Putin annexed Crimea with minimal resistance
- Ukraine conflict explained: What increasingly looks like a Russian invasion and how it unfolded
- "In the past, Putin specifically mentioned that Russia's readiness for a military operation in Ukraine, particularly in 2014, was unrealistic due to a lack of preparation in various sectors such as security, military construction, and economics and finance."
- "During the interview, Putin admitted that avoiding a head-on battle with the collective West over Ukraine was a strategic decision, stating that Russia didn't conduct any sudden moves without the necessary groundwork."
- "Fast-forwarding to December 2022, Putin expressed disappointment with the general news, accusing politicians of deception during negotiations like the Minsk agreements, which, according to him, served as a means to arm Ukraine with Western weapons."
- "In 2023, Putin revealed that the timing of the military operation, as shown in his approach to Ukraine in '14 and '22, was influenced by geopolitical, military, and diplomatic factors, with the level of readiness for certain more serious actions being a key consideration."
