Venturing into Mars: Elon Musk's Ambitious Plan, Despite the Challenges
Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has a sci-fi-like dream – colonizing Mars. Speaking at a virtual Mars Conference in August 2022, Musk shared his exhilarating vision: "If something terrible happens on Earth, caused by humans or natural disasters, we want to offer a life insurance policy for humankind."
SpaceX's Mars plans invite a flurry of technical, political, and ethical questions. Finances present one of the most significant hurdles – even Musk shies away from daring to predict the full cost.
Comparatively, the Apollo space program, known for its 1960s missions to the moon, shares some resemblance with Musk's interstellar ambitions. The Apollo project cost over $280 billion in today's dollars and, at its peak, consumed 4% of the U.S. federal budget. NASA struggled to return to the moon and eventually plan a journey to Mars.
NASA declined to reveal exactly what this Mars endeavor would cost.
Fueled by a fortune estimated at around $100 billion, largely from Tesla's shares and stock options, Musk has planned to contribute to Starship's development with profits from other SpaceX ventures, including a satellite internet company in beta and a bankroll from lenders and venture capitalists, totaling $6 billion[1].
An intriguing question arises: Can money be made on Mars?
Interstellar Profits
SpaceX's Mars colonization may take decades before the necessary technology is developed. The company is currently in the early stages of developing Starship, a massive spacecraft-and-rocket system that Musk hopes will transport both cargo and passengers over millions of miles between Earth and Mars.
Should it prove successful in overcoming great distances, settlers would need a secure, oxygen-rich habitat to protect them from Mars' toxic air and harmful radiation.
"It's not for the faint-hearted," Musk cautioned. "There's a good chance you'll die, and it will be hard... but it will be pretty awesome if it works out."
Michael Meyer, NASA's Mars Chief Scientist, expressed reservations about the Mars colonization project's profitability for at least the first 100 years after human arrival. SpaceX debuted its Perseverance rover to further investigate Mars' conditions.
On Instagram, Musk donned a "Occupy Mars" SpaceX T-shirt, cheerfully quipping that the film "Total Recall" had the right idea: "You'll need some form of mind-bending technology."
Musk acknowledged that terraforming – transforming Mars into an Earth-like planet by introducing oxygen and plant life – would be resource-intensive. However, the concept is deeply ingrained in SpaceX's history, as evidenced by Starship merchandise with the phrases, "Nuke Mars" and "Occupy Mars."
Despite his enthusiasm for terraforming, even Musk concedes that it would be extremely costly.
Values and Evaluation
"There's no known resource on Mars that is valuable enough for mining and selling back to Earth," Meyer explained to CNN Business. Musk had previously agreed that resources on Mars would likely only be valuable to settlers intent on creating an Earth-based industry. He also stated eight years ago that the only "economic exchange" between Earth and Mars inhabitants would be "intellectual property."
Mainstream scientists like Meyer support the idea that eventually, Mars might become an urban hub and tourist destination. The prospect excites them despite the uncertainties.
Meyer recalls attending a Mars business and tourism conference in 2004, initially skeptical. "I was very skeptical, thinking: 'There are some reasonable ideas,'" he said and commented that, today, he accepts that entrepreneurs can make space travel more accessible. He added that it's not about whether the Mars journey will become profitable but rather "when."
Musk remained reticent on the idea of making money on Mars, but he reiterated his idea of exporting intellectual property. This echoes the sentiments found in Robert Zubrin's "The Case for Mars," a 1996 book that influenced Musk and other space enthusiasts.
"For Martian colonists, ideas could be another way out," Zubrin wrote, urging that Mars colonists could find alternative means to finance their journey, such as selling their labor or resources. Zubrin mentioned the example of indentured servants, whose labor could be sold for seven years to fund their passage.
In a recent interview with CNN Business, Zubrin reiterated these ideas, arguing that American colonialism was successful and, using examples from the colonization of North America, suggested that potential Mars settlers could finance their journeys.
Zubrin, a noted space enthusiast, is not a polarizing figure but did work with conservative think tanks. Conceding that exploitation may accompany colonization, he said, "If someone says: 'But isn't there exploitation there?' Well, yes, that's inevitable. What people were to each other."
Inclusion and Ethics
Daniel Williams, a professor at Virginia Tech's Department of Public and International Affairs and a comparative political economist, has concerns about the selective inclusion of certain groups in colonization endeavors.
"There's a competitive nature to the expansion and exploration that isn't necessarily a bad thing," Williams said. "But who gets in, and on what terms, and who gets left out and why – those are important questions."
Williams, who is also involved with the Justice Space Alliance, encourages questioning the stories we tell about the history of space exploration and colonization, especially considering the historic marginalization of certain groups and the controversial nature of American colonialism. "[American colonialism was characterized by] slavery and brutal treatment and extermination of indigenous peoples," Williams said.
Departing from the historical narrative of American colonization is essential, according to Williams, as the development of Mars colonies will affect all of human society. Without clear objectives, objectives, and protocols, Mars colonies could evolve into "controversial conflict zones."
Williams stressed the importance of upholding established values in space exploration: "The values we promote in the field of space exploration should be at the forefront."
SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment for this article.
[1]: 's report on SpaceX funding [2]: article on Musk's Mars colonization plans [3]: article on SpaceX's potential Mars missions
The technological and financial challenges posed by Mars colonization are colossal. Some estimates suggest one million tonnes of equipment would be needed for a self-sustaining city on Mars and cost over $1,000 trillion according to Elon Musk. The Starship program, a crucial piece of SpaceX's Mars colonization plan, has development costs of approximately $4 million per day and faces delays that add $100,000 daily to the overall cost, which is not explicitly stated.*
[Enrichment Data:] Musk estimated the cost of building a self-sustaining city on Mars requiring 1 million tonnes of equipment at over $1 trillion. Starship's development cost includes approximately $4 million per day in operational expenses, $100,000 per day for delays, and computations based on launch costs estimated at £1.6 million per Starship and the Apollo missions' incomparable cost range.
