College Football Forecast Comparison in Week 4: TSI versus SP+, FPI, and Sagarin
College Football Prediction Models: TSI vs the Field - Week 4
In this week's edition of "TSI vs the Field", we delve into the world of college football prediction models, comparing our T Shoe Index (TSI) with respected models such as SP+ Rankings (by Bill Connelly, ESPN), FPI (Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics), and Sagarin.
Kicking off the week, Kansas faces West Virginia, with Kansas coming off an idle week and West Virginia riding high after an overtime win against Pitt. The models all align on West Virginia, with an average projection of Kansas -8.5 and a variance of 2.7 points. However, the author suggests sitting back and learning from the game instead of trying to force a play due to the uncertainty of the models' predictions.
In another game, UTEP is playing UL Monroe, with UTEP coming off a loss to Texas but losing by just 17 as 38.5-point underdogs, while UL Monroe was off last week after getting obliterated by Alabama. The models all align on UTEP, with an average projection of UTEP -9 and a variance of 2.9 points.
The author's analysis focuses on the East Carolina vs BYU game, which takes place at East Carolina University in Greenville, North Carolina. FPI and Sagarin have projections for this game that are somewhere in between SP+ and TSI. SP+ predicts BYU to cover the spread of -9.8, while TSI predicts only a small cover of BYU -0.7. The author has had mixed results betting on East Carolina this year, but the variance in the models' predictions (10.7 points for BYU and 11.2 points for Wisconsin) has led the author to suggest passing on betting on the game between Wisconsin and Maryland to collect another data point on these teams.
The author has also expressed concern about Wisconsin's performance this season, as the models have been unable to accurately predict their games. In particular, the author has been hesitant about the game between Wisconsin and Maryland due to Maryland's inconsistent performance and historically poor road performance under Mike Locksley. Sagarin predicts Wisconsin to cover the spread of -11, while other models range from Wisconsin -0.4 to Wisconsin -5.
As always, remember to approach these predictions with caution and do your own research before making any betting decisions. Stay tuned for next week's edition of "TSI vs the Field"!
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