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Coalition's Midterm Faces Potential Breakup Timeline?

Political tension intensifies midway through coalition leadership, as internal disputes, legal conflicts, and shifting allegiances mount, sparking concerns about a premature power split.

,   and  ASMedia
4 min read
Political cohesion weakens at the midpoint, incurring internal conflicts, legal challenges, and...
Political cohesion weakens at the midpoint, incurring internal conflicts, legal challenges, and dynamic alliances, sparking concerns over potential premature political fissures.

Coalition's Midterm Faces Potential Breakup Timeline?

Turmoil brewing in Thailand's politics, as coalition cracks widen and alliances shift, stirring fears of political instability.

With the coalition government halfway through its tenure, the winds of change are blowing. The Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has vowed to steer all coalition parties through till the end, but the road ahead looks tough.

Global economic uncertainties and domestic instability pose a threatening duo, making the next two years a potential powder keg.

Whispers of a potential cabinet shuffle persist, as political factions hold onto their bargaining chips, waiting for the opportune moment to play their hand.

The most noticeable fissure lies between the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai camps - the red-blue divide. Pheu Thai's push to retake control of the Interior Ministry, ordered by party patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra, has stoked tensions with Bhumjaithai. Such declarations as "if you're not happy, you can leave," from Pheu Thai members, leave deep wounds, particularly for Newin Chidchob, the influential leader of the "blue" camp.

Signs of pushback from the Bhumjaithai Party are becoming increasingly apparent. One glaring sign was the release of a photo featuring Newin Chidchob dining with politically powerful figures from the "Sweet Tamarind" faction, signaling a partnership that could poach six Palang Pracharath MPs from the group.

More fuel was added on June 15, when Bhumjaithai's Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, visited Udon Thani and introduced Adisak Kaewmungkhunsap, an MP from the Thai Sang Thai Party, as a prospective defector. Reports suggest Adisak is one of two Thai Sang Thai MPs preparing to jump ship to Bhumjaithai.

Some interpret these moves as a display of strength, a show of parliamentary numbers to test resolve. Whether this amounts to real negotiating power or just political grandstanding remains to be seen.

Anutin's comment about potentially moving into opposition if the Interior Ministry suffers a loss of control raised eyebrows, although he later retracted, blaming it on a question from a reporter.

Rumors of a "blue-orange" coalition between Bhumjaithai and the People's Party have surfaced. On June 29, during the 2026 budget bill deliberation, Anutin hinted at potential alignment with the opposition, stating, "if our policies coincide in the future, there's no reason why we shouldn't be restricted by current ties."

Analysts weigh two likely scenarios as tensions escalate:

  1. Bhumjaithai is bluffing. Some believe Thaksin has already calculated that Bhumjaithai has little real intention of leaving the coalition. The party is entangled in multiple legal battles, which may strip them of influence at a crucial moment.
  2. Bhumjaithai is ready to enter opposition territory. This aligns with recent comments from key figures from the United Thai Nation Party, another coalition partner. Deputy party leader Witthaya Kaewparadai stated that if cabinet reshuffle negotiations fail to reach a consensus, particularly concerning energy and industry portfolios, it could be seen as breaking the coalition agreement, potentially forcing a departure.

Such confidence may stem from the belief that Pheu Thai's reshuffle ambitions could trigger its own downfall. Behind the scenes, whispers of an impending "lawfare" are growing, known as the "silent coup" by insiders, using legal and constitutional mechanisms to bring down the government.

Pivotal to this is the Senate collusion election case, which could lay the groundwork for a purge of the "blue camp." Thaksin himself may face potential charges. More urgently, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has accepted a petition to investigate potential constitutional breaches by the cabinet, MPs, and senators concerning the 2025 fiscal budget bill. If found guilty, the cabinet may be removed and banned from serving in a caretaker government during elections.

Informal discussions between key "keymen" from multiple parties have begun, exchanging views on potential political outcomes, including both renewed deal-making and a complete reshaping of alliances.

In Thai politics, anything can happen, especially amid the current wave of legal attacks engulfing all sides. This volatile environment could accelerate the timeline for general elections, potentially pushing them before the scheduled date.

As internal and external crises grow, the political temperature is rising quickly. Regardless of whether it leads to a reshuffle, a rupture, or a reset, one thing is clear: Thailand's political landscape is on the brink of another shift.

  • TAGS
  • coalition
  • breakdown
  • political instability
  • Thaksin Shinawatra
  • Newin Chidchob
  • Pheu Thai
  • Bhumjaithai1. Cambodian hackers launch DDoS attacks on Thai websites amid rising tensions2. 13 foreigners arrested in Thailand for allegedly running a scam targeting Australians3. Thailand's pharmaceutical industry struggling with reliance on imports and rising costs4. Thailand slips five places in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking5. Thailand granted approval to host Formula One from 2028-2033 with an estimated THB 41bn budget

Enrichment Data:

The current political climate in Thailand is characterized by escalating tensions within the coalition government, particularly between the Pheu Thai Party and its key partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, commonly referred to as the "red-blue divide." Here are some key aspects of their relationship and potential changes:

Current Political Alliances:

  • The alliance between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is characterized as a "love-hate" relationship, facing challenges due to disagreements over policy and political tensions[4]. Pheu Thai's pursuit of the Interior Ministry has created friction, with Bhumjaithai resisting proposed ministerial swaps[1][4].

Potential Changes:

  1. Cabinet Reshuffle Speculation: Persistent rumors about a forthcoming cabinet reshuffle could heighten current tensions within the coalition[1][2].
  2. Power Struggles: The ongoing struggle for control of key ministerial positions, particularly the Interior Ministry, remains a significant point of contention[1].
  3. Impact on Government Stability: If the rifts between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai can't be resolved, it could lead to significant political instability[4].
  4. Potential Leadership Changes: Speculation suggests that Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul might be considered as a replacement for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra if the political scenario deteriorates[5].
  • The current coalition government in Thailand faces a challenging road ahead, with tensions escalating between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, putting the stability of the government at risk.
  • The push for control of the Interior Ministry and potential cabinet reshuffles are causing friction within the coalition, threatening to destabilize the government.
  • The power struggles within the coalition have attracted attention from key political factions, with the Sang Tamarind and People's Party considering potential alignments.
  • The volatile political landscape in Thailand, marked by legal attacks and the potential for a shift in alliances, could accelerate the timeline for general elections.

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