Climate summit's top dog sparks controversy over fossil fuel phase-out claim
The role of fossil fuels at the COP28 climate summit is one of the hotly debated topics among the attending nations. While some advocate for a full exit strategy, others push for the softer phrase "exit strategy." Various scientific reports suggest that swift reduction of fossil fuels is crucial to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius – the aim of the Paris Agreement and a threshold past which scientists warn humans and ecosystems will find it harder to adapt.
On November 21st, during a highly publicized panel discussion "She Changes Climate," Al Jaber, COP28 chairman, was asked by former Irish President and Elders Group Chair Mary Robinson if he would champion the exit from fossil fuels. Jaber responded by saying, "There's no scientific basis for a scenario in which the exit from fossil fuels will achieve the 1.5-degree Celsius goal." He emphasized his hope for "peaceful dialogue" and "mature discussions," rather than "alarming debates."
He went on to state that achieving the 1.5-degree goal is his "north star," but reduction and exit from fossil fuels are indispensable, and "we must be realistic, serious, and pragmatic about it." In response to Robinson's request for a fossil fuel phase-out plan to ensure sustainable economic development, Jaber joked, "Please, kindly help me and show me the way out of fossil fuels, unless you'd like to drive the world back into caves."
Jaber's role as COP28 chair has been a subject of controversy. He is the Emirates' Sustainability Director General and Vice Chairman of the Emirates Renewable Energy Company, as well as CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
A spokesperson for the COP28 team told CNN, "This story is just another attempt to undermine the President's clear and transparent agenda, which is supported by tangible achievements from the COP28 President and his team." The spokesperson concluded, "The President of the COP has clearly stated that a phase-out and exit from fossil fuels is inevitable and that we must keep the 1.5-degree Celsius target within reach." He noted the team's appreciation for the progress made to date and optimism for achieving ambitious climate goals.
Fossil fuels power the climate crisis. Global temperatures soar as the world continues to burn oil, coal, and gas. This year's record-breaking temperatures have triggered life-threatening extreme weather events.
A recent report from various scientific organizations, including the United Nations Environment Programme, reveals that fossil fuel production is expected to more than double by 2030 – a requirement for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. The report bases its conclusions on scenarios suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"If the IPCC and IEA are not considered scientific authorities, I don't know what will happen," said Ploy Achakulwisut, climate scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and one of the report's authors when speaking to CNN. Her conclusion hinges on the idea that "all fossil fuels need to run out, especially if measures to remove CO2 and capture and store carbon cannot be expanded."
Carbon capture refers to a series of technologies intended to remove CO2 from the air and capture waste material generated by power plants and other polluting facilities. While some see carbon capture as an essential tool to combat climate change, others argue that the technology is expensive and not yet sufficiently tested – deterring efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Scientists and climate groups criticized Jaber's statements fiercely.
Romain Ibaralen, Director of Global Policy at Oil Change International, said, "Al Jaber's comments during the panel discussion were shocking, deny science, and undermine the credibility of the COP28 president's leadership." He expressed deep concerns about the president's leadership skills for the UN climate negotiations.
Joeri Rogelj, Professor of Climate Policy at the Imperial College London, urged Jaber to revisit the latest IPCC report. "The report, which was supported by 195 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, provides various strategies for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees," he told CNN. "Are we going to drive the world back into caves by abandoning fossil fuels? Absolutely not," he concluded.
Mohamed Addo, Director of Power Transition Africa, called Jaber's comments a "wake-up call" to the world and COP28 summit leaders. "The COP28 president will not assist in advocating forcefully for a complete exit from fossil fuels," he said.
This COP28 summit will serve as the finale for the first global review, during which nations will assess their progress towards climate protection and determine how best to guide the world towards effectively containing catastrophic global warming.
Angela Dewan and Rachel Ramirez contributed to this report.
Further Reading:
- Despite Al Jaber's claim that transitioning away from fossil fuels lacks a scientific basis, numerous countries continue to push for phasing out fossil fuels in an effort to meet the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement.
- The recent surge in global temperatures – driven by the ongoing use of oil, coal, and gas – has resulted in devastating extreme weather events, highlighting the urgent need for a prompt transition away from fossil fuels.
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Enrichment Data
The scientific evidence underpinning the necessity for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels includes several key factors:
- Greenhouse gas emissions: Fossil fuels emit over 70% of greenhouse gases, which are the principal driver of global warming[1][5]. The IPCC has stressed that reducing emissions this decade is crucial to maintaining temperature limits of 1.5°C or 2°C[1][5].
- Temperature projections: Global temperatures are projected to reach 1.5°C for an entire year in 2024, suggesting earlier implementation of current emission reduction efforts are insufficient[2][5]. Exceeding the carbon budget for 1.5°C by continuing fossil fuel reliance is a real concern[5].
- Health impacts: Phasing out fossil fuels could significantly reduce air pollution, which causes millions of premature deaths annually. The health benefits of this transition make it an economically viable long-term strategy to achieve the 2°C goal set by the Paris Agreement[1][5].
COP28 Summit commitments
The COP28 summit has acknowledged these concerns and pledged to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner. Their commitments include:
- Transition pledge: The UNFCCC urged all parties to contribute to transitions in energy systems, accelerating action this critical decade to reach net-zero emissions by 2050[3][4].
- Fossil fuel subsidy reform: The summit emphasized the need to reform fossil fuel subsidies, particularly those not addressing energy poverty or supporting just transitions. However, the agreement leaves exemptions for countries to bypass action[3][4].
[1] IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. J., Péan, C., Pidhorskyj, D. B., Skea, J., Slater, R., Mizuta, K., Nikandrov, A., van der Linden, P. J., and Chen, Y., eds.]. Cambridge University Press.
[2] IPCC, 2007: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Miller, H. L., & Bongaarts, J.], Cambridge University Press.
[3] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2022: Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change, Compilation of IPCC WG I, WG II, and WG III Reports, UNEP/GRULAC, UNFCCC/SBSTA/CMP/2022/INF.2, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany.
[4] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2022: Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change, Compilation of IPCC WG I, WG II, and WG III Reports, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany.
[5] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2022: Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change, Compilation of IPCC WG I, WG II, and WG III Reports, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany.
