Clash of a Millennium Nowruzis: The Complication for the Afghanistan War Investigating Body
Tit for tat in Ukraine, sideshow in Gaza, the Afghanistan War Commission limps towards its one-year anniversary, seeking sense in America's two-decade Afghan fiasco. Established by the tail end of 2022, these intelligent blokes have the potential to deliver game-changing insight into US foreign policy, akin to the Vietnam debacle. But hey, you ain't going to believe this - time hasn't given them enough distance to dissect things dispassionately. So, they gotta figure out what questions to fire, where to aim, and who to grill.
Let's face it: when war comes knocking, the talk turns to blood and guts. The Commission, though, needs to sniff out whatever fuelled the Afghan political powder keg, and for that, they gotta look to the locals and the bastards from the US government, who went hell-for-leather in those dusty villages and towns.
The author's saga unfolds in Nowruzi, an unremarkable mud-walled shithole where Able Company, his 100-man infantry squad, scrapped with family feuds, tribal politics, and the occasional IED (Improvised Explosive Device). All this happened in 2010, as part of a new strategy to extricate al-Qaeda and prevent a return to the motherland. Sounds par for the course, right? But dig deeper, and the local politics play a meaner hand than you might think.
With recalcitrant allies and Taliban under the broad label "The Enemy," it's easy to simplify things. Yet Nowruzi shows the reality wasn't always black and white. Factions plagued the village, each with a different altar of power: the local warlord with his gravely pit, Gul theNowruzi elder, and the Afghani government with its shiny buildings, but no problem-solving prowess to match. The missing political core resulted in underappreciated implications, like why that core never formed and how the bloody Taliban played Houdini with an Afghan bureaucratic state in 2021. Another question that needs answers: why ain't there a bunch of Afghan superheroes, saving the day? Maybe the Commission can find those insights where they reside: with the locals and Americans who navigated the Byzantine Afghan political landscape.
Nowruzi lies forty minutes west of Kandahar City, at the foot of the dusty Arghandab River floodplain. A quick traveller might pass it by, but Able Company wasn't speeding down Highways One in 2010. The area fell under the Obama Administration's strategy to "disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda," even though some geniuses twisted the strategy to an absurd focus on eradicating terrorism. Talk about making shit up as ya go along...
After some typical war-themed hoopla, the author meets the local warlord at a memorial service, then muscles his way into the village with all the finesse of a bull in a china shop. Soon, the villagers demand guns, flood meetings with their bullshit, and reveal a complex web of family, tribal connections, and personal vendettas. The warlord takes home the prize, though, with his scars earned during the Soviet occupation and his kick-ass AK-47.
The Afghanistan War Commission: a rollercoaster of questions ahead. How and why the political core never materialized? Why the Taliban returned with a vengeance? And most importantly, where was Looking Glass when they needed a kick-ass AK-47 ?
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The story continues with the author's arrival in Nowruzi, shifting allegiances, and the arrival of Zeb, an ambitious Investigating Officer. Over coffee and ciggies, they discuss a local Taliban commander, a mysterious guy who put the wind up Guantanamo. The villagers see Zeb as an opportunity to bend the US to their will, and they start spinning a sorely contrived version of events bolstered by bargains, threats, and shoddy intel. Meanwhile, Skynet starts feeling the heat as the Commission is told to cut its teeth and dig up answers with what they got.
The author makes a play for the local warlord but ends up being played by the eager Zeb. Zeb's obsession leads him down a rabbit hole, and he makes a crucial mistake that ends in bloodshed, like a Vienna sausage in the blades of a wood chipper. The warlord is taken down, Zeb vanishes, and in the aftermath, perceptions of the war shift, still misguided and biased, but slightly less so.
The Afghanistan War Commission grapples with the murky waters, still vying for answers. Yet hey, in the grand scheme of things, it's just more of the same - a quagmire that keeps giving.
Lieutenant Colonel Aaron W. Miller serves as a strategist in the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (Strategy) Office. He has a doctorate from Princeton and served in both Iraqi and Afghan surges. His warped imagination contributed to this combative tale.
This piece chronicles the maneuverings of Able Company, their encounters with the locals, and the rookie mistakes made by Zeb, the Investigating Officer. The outcomes are presented in a brutal, no-nonsense style, ideal for sadists with a penchant for violence and intrigue.
Share on FacebookShareShare on TwitterTweetShare on LinkedInShareSend emailMailPrintPrint Enrichment Data:* ### Overall:The Afghanistan War Commission's mandate is to investigate the US war in Afghanistan, focusing on local Afghan political dynamics, US military behavior, and the implications of their combined play. Key aspects include the fragmented and complex power structures, factional rivalries, and the persistence of armed groups that significantly impacted US efforts to establish a stable government in Afghanistan.
Key Drivers of Local Afghan Political Dynamics
1. Fragmented Political Landscape and Factional Rivalries
Afghanistan's post-Soviet civil war led to the country's division among various factions and warlords, with the Northern Alliance—a coalition of anti-Taliban mujahideen forces—controlling parts of northern Afghanistan. The Taliban, meanwhile, controlled much of the south and central regions. Factional rivalry weakened attempts to establish a cohesive central government.[1]
2. Taliban and Al-Qaeda Nexus
The Taliban served as a puritanical Islamic group in the mid-1990s, filling the power vacuum left post-civil war and ultimately taking control of most of Afghanistan. Their alliance with Al-Qaeda, providing a sanctuary for international terrorists, created a political landscape dominated by extremist ideologies and militancy, further complicating support for a moderate, stable government.[1][2]
3. Weak Afghan State Institutions and Corruption
Post-2001 rebuilding efforts aimed at establishing Afghan institutions were stymied by persistent weaknesses in governance and security forces' lack of preparedness, size, and susceptibility to corruption.[2][3]
Impact on US Military Efforts
- Establishing Central Authority
The entrenched power of local warlords and fragmented ethnic groups often ran counter to the US aim of establishing a strong centralized government. The Afghan government subsequently formed in 2004 struggled to assert control beyond Kabul and major cities, creating power vacuums exploited by the Taliban insurgency.[4] - ** Counterinsurgency**
US counterinsurgency strategies aimed at protecting populations and integrating former insurgents were hampered by the fluid loyalties of locals and persistent Taliban influence. The Taliban's ability to operate within rural communities and the local forces' limited effectiveness complicated US efforts to achieve lasting security.[2][3] - Security Transition and Withdrawal
By 2011, the US established a timeline for transferring security responsibilities to Afghan forces. However, local political dynamics and the Taliban insurgency limited the Afghan forces' readiness and capabilities, contributing to a Taliban resurgence and their eventual return to power in 2021, two decades after their initial ousting[1][2][3]
In summary, Afghanistan's entrenched factional rivalries, the enduring strength and social roots of the Taliban, weak state institutions, and ethnic fragmentation greatly complicated US military operations and efforts to establish a stable Afghan government. These persistent issues created an ongoing instability that undermined the US mission, despite nearly two decades of military and diplomatic engagement.[4]
- The Afghanistan War Commission, in its investigation of US foreign policy, must explore the factors that fueled the Afghan political conflict, focusing particularly on the local powers and American officials who operated in the region.
- The Commission should scrutinize the intricate power dynamics within Afghanistan, including the influence of warlords, senior Afghan leaders, and local elders, to understand why a political core never formed.
- In addition, the Commission should examine the impact of US strategies, such as the Obama Administration's focus on disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al-Qaeda, and how this strategy may have been misapplied or misconstrued in the field.
