China strengthens economic dominance in Central Asia
China's Influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus Grows Amidst Expanding Economic Ties
US officials face a challenging task as they seek to curb China's growing global influence in Central Asia. The region, borderline China, has seen China's economic clout intensify, with the country's General Administration of Customs reporting a near 5% increase in trade turnover to $94.8 billion in 2024. This figure represents a significant leap from the previous year's $89.4 billion.
China has surpassed Russia to become the region's leading trade partner, with exports valued at $64.2 billion, accounting for over two-thirds of the overall trade. Imports primarily consist of natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, as well as fruits and other foodstuffs. Kazakhstan remains China's largest trade partner in the region, with bilateral trade reaching $43.8 billion, a nearly 7% increase over the previous year.
Kyrgyzstan has achieved the most substantial year-on-year increase in trade with China, with the bilateral turnover reaching $22.7 billion. Despite this growth, Kyrgyzstan reported a substantial trade deficit with China in 2024, importing over$19.9 billionworth of goods. However, Kyrgyzstan's exports to China increased dramatically by 3,270% from the previous year, rising from $80 million to $2.8 billion.
Turkmenistan is the only Central Asian nation to record a trade surplus with China, with exports totaling $9.6 billion, while imports stood at just over $1 billion. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have both experienced marginal declines in Chinese trade, with exports totaling $2 billion and imports at $11.8 billion, and $350 million and $3.5 billion respectively.
China's economic influence is not limited to Central Asia, as the country's economic footprint in the Caucasus region is on the rise. Trade turnover with the region's three nations – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – reached $6.5 billion in 2024, marking a 22% increase from the previous year. As with Central Asia, the balance of trade overwhelmingly favors China, with Caucasus states' imports worth $5.3 billion, while exports amounted to $1.1 billion.
Azerbaijan accounts for the largest share of the region's trade turnover, with more than 43% year-on-year growth. However, this growth was primarily driven by imports, which soared by 55%, while exports declined by 64%. Meanwhile, Georgia's trade with China grew by about 10%, with imports remaining relatively stable while exports climbed by approximately 142%. Armenia's bilateral turnover increased by 15%, but it was the expanded flow of goods from China that accounted for nearly all of the growth.
While China's influence is growing in the region, the EU, Russia, Turkey, and the US present competition for Central Asian states. Maintaining a multi-faceted foreign policy helps these nations maximize their independence in the face of this geopolitical mosaic. China's growing economic ties contribute to its increasing institutionalization in these regions, as highlighted by high-level summits, bilateral targets, and flagship projects. These initiatives aim to integrate Central Asia into broader Eurasian trade networks while reinforcing both economic and political ties.
Food imports from China have significantly increased in Central Asian countries, with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan being among the top importers of fruits and other foodstuffs. Meanwhile, the weather and sports news in the region continue to be secondary concerns compared to the growing economic ties with China.
