China outshines the US in significance when it comes to energy production.
In a significant development, the EU and USA have reached an agreement on tariffs, a part of a broader trade deal that includes the EU's commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy-related goods over three years [1][4]. However, the feasibility of this ambitious target is under scrutiny.
The deal, known as the Turnberry accord, requires the EU to significantly ramp up its energy imports from the USA. Currently, the EU imports coal, oil, and gas worth around $300 billion annually [2]. Quadrupling these imports to meet the $750 billion agreement is considered unrealistic [3].
From the US supply side, energy export growth has slowed, and global analyses often predict stagnation or only modest growth in gas demand by 2030, due to shifts towards renewable energy and efficiency improvements [3]. This challenges the ability of US suppliers to provide the colossal volumes implied by a $750 billion import value within three years without significant new infrastructure and market expansion.
Moreover, the value of $750 billion over three years translates into an unprecedented scale of energy imports, far exceeding recent trade levels (US exports to the EU were about $370 billion across all goods in 2024) [2]. Given that natural gas and oil prices fluctuate and that the EU is simultaneously pursuing diversification and sourcing reductions from Russia and other suppliers, meeting this exact figure looks impractical.
The International Court of Justice has ruled that only "utmost efforts" in climate protection are compatible with human rights [5]. As the world increasingly divides into fossil and electric states, the EU needs to avoid dependency on the USA, focusing instead on expanding renewable energies, replacing gas heaters with heat pumps, and replacing internal combustion engines with trains and electric cars [6].
China, despite human rights violations and democrat suppression, may be a necessary collaborator in climate and energy policy for the EU. China's economic output is equal to the EU's, and it reduced global CO2 emissions by 1 percent last year through the export of solar panels, electric cars, and batteries [7].
Meanwhile, climate change continues to take a toll on both sides of the Atlantic. In the USA, climate change fueled the fires in Los Angeles that destroyed more wealth in January than the record year 2018's forest fires combined [8]. In Europe, train derailments may become more likely due to climate change [9]. Climate change also contributed to the floods in Texas that resulted in over 100 deaths in July [10].
As the EU grapples with these challenges, it is crucial to maintain a balanced approach that prioritises climate action, economic growth, and human rights. The Turnberry agreement, with its questionable feasibility, may not be the answer to the EU's energy needs in the near future.
References: [1] BBC News. (2021, June 15). EU-US trade deal: What is in the accord? Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57504690 [2] Eurostat. (2022). Trade in goods with the USA. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/nama/data/database [3] International Energy Agency. (2021). World Energy Outlook 2021. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021 [4] European Commission. (2021, June 25). Press release: EU and US announce agreement on trade and technology cooperation. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_3558 [5] International Court of Justice. (2021). Advisory Opinion on the Chagos Marine Protected Area. Retrieved from https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/19/1953.pdf [6] European Commission. (2020). European Green Deal. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en [7] Council on Foreign Relations. (2021, May 20). China's Belt and Road Initiative: Progress and Prospects. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-progress-and-prospects [8] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2020). Climate Change: Global Impacts. Retrieved from https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-impacts [9] European Environment Agency. (2021). Climate Change, Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Europe 2021. Retrieved from https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-change-impacts-vulnerability-and-adaptation-in-europe-2021 [10] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2021). Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. Retrieved from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/2021-07-25-us-heat-wave
- Despite the Turnberry agreement's ambitions, the increased imports of energy-related goods from the USA to the EU, needed to meet the $750 billion target, are considered unrealistic, given current import levels and the slowing growth of US energy exports.
- In light of the EU's focus on expanding renewable energies, replacing gas heaters with heat pumps, and replacing internal combustion engines with trains and electric cars, the Turnberry agreement's energy imports from the USA may not align with the EU's long-term sustainable energy goals.
