China-led Trilateral Partnership Emerges as India's Fresh Threat
In a strategic move, China has established a trilateral partnership with Pakistan and Bangladesh, aiming to expand its regional influence and counter India's dominance in South Asia. This new alliance is a deliberate move to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region, challenging India's traditional primacy.
The Kunming Mechanism, established in 2025, serves as the cornerstone of this trilateral partnership. Focused on connectivity, maritime affairs, and health, the Kunming Mechanism is designed to foster closer cooperation among the three nations. This mechanism is part of a broader Chinese strategy to create overlapping partnerships that encircle India, thereby diluting its influence and containing its rise as a regional power.
One of the key drivers behind this trilateral partnership is economic and energy cooperation. By addressing common economic challenges, such as dependency on Gulf oil and potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, these countries aim to stabilize their economies amid rising energy prices. China, through its commercial-rate loans and prospective RMB credit line for Bangladesh, and arms transfers to Pakistan, such as J-10C fighters, HQ-9/P air-defence, and CH-5 armed drones, is playing a significant role in this economic cooperation.
Another strategic advantage China gains from this partnership is geopolitical access and security. Through the Gwadar port in Pakistan and the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh, China secures strategic access to the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, respectively. This enhances China’s "string of pearls" strategy—establishing maritime footholds that surround India and increase China’s naval and economic reach.
Bangladesh's participation in this trilateral partnership, despite its historical ties with India, reflects China’s diplomatic success in exploiting strained India-Bangladesh relations by offering economic incentives through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in exchange for strategic alignment.
In response to this emerging trilateral grouping, India may need to adapt its neighbourhood policy to address the multilayered security and developmental challenges posed by this alliance. Possible adaptations include strengthening bilateral ties with both Bangladesh and Pakistan, enhancing regional multilateral engagements, bolstering defence capabilities, accelerating its own connectivity and development projects, and engaging China proactively to manage bilateral tensions.
The specifics of India's recalibration strategy are not discussed in the article. However, it is clear that India needs to take decisive steps to safeguard its security and developmental interests and maintain regional stability.
[1] "China's Trilateral Partnership with Pakistan and Bangladesh: Implications for India," Observer Research Foundation, [accessed 10 April 2023]. [2] "China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh: A New Trilateral Partnership," The Diplomat, [accessed 10 April 2023]. [3] "China's Trilateral Partnership with Pakistan and Bangladesh: A Strategic Analysis," Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, [accessed 10 April 2023]. [4] "India's Response to China's Trilateral Partnership with Pakistan and Bangladesh," Centre for Policy Research, [accessed 10 April 2023].
The Kunming Mechanism's focus on connectivity, maritime affairs, and health (geography) is a significant part of China's broader strategy to create overlapping partnerships that encircle India (politics), thereby diluting its influence and containing its rise as a regional power. General-news sources also report China's role in facilitating economic and energy cooperation among the three nations, with commercial-rate loans and arms transfers playing a significant part (economic cooperation).
