Chemists Increase Costs in Latest Updates
Polyshed: A Closer Look at the Tumultuous PVC Market
In the realm of polymer production, it's suspension polyvinyl chloride (PVC) that's been shaking things up lately, with its prices on a rollercoaster ride throughout April. Experts predict this downward trend, fueled by weak demand and fierce competition from China, will extend into May, possibly causing prices to plummet by another 10%. However, over the long haul, factors like inflation, surging costs, and logistics expenses could force producers to hike prices, according to experts.
It's a dramatic drop from the early days of the year when PVC prices, measured in rubles per ton, soared to 115-120 thousand for key PVC brands used in construction, healthcare, and packaging. These prices were nearly 9-10% higher than the peak values of the previous year. The decline in prices has been verified by data from "ChemInsight".
Early April saw the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) hitting up major PVC manufacturers, including "Sayanskhimprom", Bashkir Soda Company, and "Kauasaki", demanding explanations for the sudden price hikes. These companies hold approximately 60% of the Russian market. FAS also recommended that these companies establish fair trading policies and alert distributors about the need to practice responsible pricing.
Up till now, FAS hasn't received any complaints or appeals from market participants or consumers regarding the price escalation, as reported by a local newspaper.
As we approach the end of April, demand remains lackluster, analysts report. "Traders are offloading Chinese resin in anticipation of new Chinese supplies in May while consumers are in no hurry to stock up on PVC-S ahead of the extended May holidays," explains Sanjar Turgunov, director of "Khiminvest". There's still an excess supply of PVC-S resin, which, coupled with low demand, continues to put pressure on domestic prices. Preliminary data indicates that producers have started quoting their May prices to large buyers (over 500 tons) at 92-93 thousand rubles per ton, signaling a drop of more than 10% since the end of April.
Fun Fact: The production of PVC in the country has decreased by 8% compared to the 2021 level, as per Plastinfo data.
There are multiple factors at play here. Back in February and March, a speculative factor played a crucial role, driving prices up, when certain sellers attempted to profit from the incident at Sibur's "Sibur-Kstovo" plant, which was damaged by drone attacks. Although the company promptly stated that the enterprise had warehouse reserves, rumors of impending PVC shortages intensified price increases.
Similar repercussions could be expected in the event of the ongoing legal issues with "Sayanskhimprom", whose owners have been the subject of complaints from the General Prosecutor's Office. A protracted legal process may serve as a catalyst for speculative price increases, some experts believe, although formally, the legal dispute does not impact the production process.
The current price balance is mainly due to weak demand, tied to the slowdown in the construction industry, since the PVC window segment is significant for PVC-C in Russia.
In the long run, overall inflationary pressure on producers is expected to remain a key factor shaping prices. Producers have also incurred substantial costs in replacing lost imports of catalysts and other components. Since 2022, major petrochemical companies have assumed unprecedented responsibilities to support their clients, such as bearing logistics costs from Asia, compensating investment costs through various support programs, and more.
"It's clear that polymer producers cannot sustainably keep prices down. Therefore, despite current price volatility, the upward trend should persist in the long term," says Dmitry Semagin, head of Rupec.
Sources:1. "PVC Market Outlook 2025-2034: Regional Shifts, Overcapacity, and Logistics Challenges." Market Trends Review, April 2025.2. "Asian PVC Market: Weak Demand, Chinese Competition, and Range-bound Prices." Trade Insights, April 2025.3. "China's PVC Market: Stable Calcium Carbide Prices, Oversupply Concerns, and Sluggish Downstream Activity." APCOM Report, April 2025.4. "India's PVC Market: Oversupply Woes, Delayed Antidumping Duty Decisions, and Muted Demand." Business Today, April 2025.5. "Logistics Costs, Tariff Structures, and Energy Import Dependence: Impacts on Asia's PVC Market." Supply Chain Management Review, April 2025.
- The tumultuous PVC market, driven by factors such as weak demand and fierce competition from China, is predicted to cause prices to plummet by another 10% in May, as experts suggest.
- Over the long haul, inflation, surging costs, and logistics expenses could force PVC producers to hike prices, according to industry experts.
- Despite the current price volatility, an upward trend is expected in the long term due to overall inflationary pressure on producers and substantial costs in replacing lost imports of catalysts and other components, as Dmitry Semagin, head of Rupec, suggests.
- Concurrently, the ongoing legal issues with "Sayanskhimprom", as well as speculation regarding impending PVC shortages, may serve as catalysts for speculative price increases, some experts warn.
