Changing Populations in Europe: A Quantitative Look at Demographic Shifts
In the past decade, the European Union (EU) has experienced a unique demographic evolution, shaped primarily by two factors: natural change (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration (the balance of immigration and emigration).
From 2011 to 2024, natural change in many EU countries has been either stagnant or negative. This stems from low birth rates and an aging population, which has led to natural population losses in several countries, such as Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. In contrast, net migration has generally contributed positively to overall population growth, offsetting natural decline in several member states and supporting overall stabilization or modest growth in the EU population.
Eurostat data and demographic reports indicate that the natural increase has been weak or negative, particularly in Eastern and Southern Europe. These losses have been partially or largely compensated by positive net migration flows, driven by both intra-EU mobility and immigration from outside the EU. Countries like Germany, Sweden, and others with relatively strong net immigration have benefited from these trends.
Switzerland, for example, reached a population of 9 million people in 2024, an increase from 8.9 million in 2023, primarily due to net migration. In contrast, Italy, with 59.7 million people in 2024, saw a slight decrease from 59.8 million in 2023, despite positive net migration.
The EU's median age is currently 43, making it the oldest region in the world. If fertility rates remain at current levels, the negative natural change in the EU could continue in the future, potentially leading to more pronounced population decline.
However, there are bright spots. Six EU countries (France, Sweden, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta) recorded more births than deaths in 2024, in addition to positive net migration. The highest growth rates were recorded in Malta, Portugal, and Ireland.
In 2024, 19 EU member states saw their population growing while eight saw a decline. The positive net migration in 2024 was 2.3 million, lower than the almost 3 million of 2022.
As of January 1st, 2025, the EU population reached an estimated 450.4 million residents, marking the fourth consecutive year of population growth after a drop during the pandemic.
References:
[1] Eurostat (2022). Population statistics. [Online]. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population/data/database
[3] Pew Research Centre (2021). Europe's shifting demographics: A look at population change and migration. [Online]. Available: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/06/02/europes-shifting-demographics-a-look-at-population-change-and-migration/
- In the past decade, politics surrounding immigration within the European Union (EU) have been significant, with positive net migration contributing to overall population growth, particularly in countries like Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland.
- The sphere of general-news has highlighted the impact of immigration on the EU's demographic evolution, as many member states have offset natural population losses with positive net migration, leading to modest growth or stabilization in the EU population.
