Chances of JD Vance Defeating Gavin Newsom, AOC, and Pete Buttigieg in the Elections of 2028
As we approach the midterm elections in 2026, the race for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is already heating up, with Vice President JD Vance leading the pack on the Republican side. According to the latest betting odds, Vance has a 55% chance of securing the Republican nomination and a 28% chance of winning the presidency.
On the Democratic side, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the contenders with a 20% chance of winning the nomination, followed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at around 16% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 12%.
In a recent Emerson College poll, Vance showed an early lead over leading Democratic candidates, with 58% support among Republicans. This was followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 13%. Interestingly, former President Donald Trump's odds have recently worsened due to health concerns and other factors, now sitting around 10-1 to win the presidency.
Other notable candidates with significant betting odds include Gavin Newsom (6-1 to win presidency), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (8-1), and Marco Rubio (5-1). Long shots on the Democratic side include celebrities like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Oprah Winfrey, each with roughly 1-2% odds, while Tom Brady appears as a low-probability Republican contender with odds below 1%.
These odds are reflected across multiple betting platforms like BetOnline and Polymarket, which aggregate real-money wagers and adjust rapidly to news events, offering a dynamic and market-informed prediction of election outcomes. They tend to outperform conventional polls because betting markets continuously price new information as it emerges.
While Vice President Vance is currently the front-runner, other candidates are not ruling out a run for the presidency. For instance, William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps suggested that Kamala Harris could be eyeing the 2028 presidential election. However, Harris' chances of winning the presidential race have stalled and currently stand at 3.3%.
Candidates typically don't make their presidential announcements until after the midterms, which are set to be held on November 3, 2026. Until then, the race for the White House will continue to be a fascinating spectacle to watch.
[1] BetOnline: BetOnline 2028 Presidential Odds [2] Polymarket: Polymarket 2028 Presidential Election Market [3] AtlasIntel: AtlasIntel 2028 Presidential Poll
- Media outlets have been discussing the heated race for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, focusing particularly on the betting odds for Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, two front-runners on their respective party sides.
- Migration patterns and war-and-conflicts across the globe have been a general news topic, but their direct impact on the 2028 presidential race remains unclear, as current emphasis lies on policy-and-legislation proposals from the candidates regarding immigration and foreign policy.
- Crimes, accidents, and fires, among other similar issues, are part of the crime-and-justice sector that candidates typically address in their campaign platforms, with Vice President Vance and Governor Newsom outlining their strategies to reduce crime rates and improve emergency response systems.
- A fluctuation in the betting odds indicates a shifting political landscape, with the odds for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump dropping recently, while those for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom have remained relatively stable.
- The sports sector, particularly sports-betting, has been affected by the midterm elections and the presidential race, as real-money wagers on both events have surged, affecting the betting odds for the candidates and offering a unique perspective on the elections.
- The rising numbers of car-accidents, fires, and sports-betting incidents highlight the need for effective policy-and-legislation, a key aspect of the candidates' platforms, with the public relying on their ability to address these issues efficiently if elected.
