Challenges Facing India: Three Crucial Decisions to Make in an Unpredictable Global Climate (Syed Ata Hasnain)
India's foreign policy landscape has undergone significant changes in the wake of the Trump administration's shift towards a more punitive and transactional approach. This shift, characterised by steep tariffs on Indian exports and pressures related to India's purchase of Russian oil, has disrupted the previously cooperative tone between the US and India [1][2][3][5].
Facing harsh US tariffs and trade barriers, India has been forced to reconsider its stance, leading it to entertain improved ties with China—previously seen mostly as a strategic competitor—and strengthen its already warm relationship with Russia. This pivot is pragmatic, driven by economic and geopolitical pressures, but risks undermining US efforts to position India as a counterweight to China [2].
The Trump administration's coercive trade diplomacy has caused a breakdown in trust, alienating India's leadership and prompting New Delhi to protect its core economic and geopolitical interests, notably its energy relationship with Russia [3][5].
Given this evolving context, India's potential options for managing its relationships with the US, Russia, and China include:
- US: Negotiate selectively for trade concessions while maintaining strategic autonomy, engage in issue-based cooperation (e.g., technology, defense) to sustain strategic ties, and avoid overt alignment in US-China tensions to retain diplomatic flexibility.
- Russia: Continue strategic partnership, especially in defense and energy, use the relationship as leverage to balance US pressure, and pursue diversified energy sources to mitigate risks.
- China: Manage tensions through diplomacy and selective economic engagement, participate in multilateral forums to balance China’s influence, and calibrate the relationship to prevent overdependence or escalated conflict.
India’s approach is likely to remain pragmatic and hedged, balancing its economic and security interests with all three powers rather than committing to any single alliance. This strategic realignment is a testament to India's resilience and its ability to maintain ties with all three major powers while protecting its core interests [4].
History shows that downturns can become breakthroughs, as demonstrated by the improved US-India and China-India relations. The writer, a retired lieutenant-general and a former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 ("Chinar") Corps, suggests that India should steer carefully through turbulence, confident that calmer waters will return.
The Trump administration’s trade and diplomatic pressure has forced New Delhi to reassess its long-term strategic posture, potentially complicating US ambitions in Asia while preserving India's own autonomy and regional influence [2][3][4].
The writer also notes that Mr Trump's embrace of Pakistan should be ignored, considering it political theatre. A successful foreign policy must secure the resources needed for India's development, and India has the resilience to maintain ties with all three major powers while protecting its core interests.
In conclusion, India's foreign policy should maintain operational ties with the US while awaiting a friendlier era. The writer believes that India's foreign policy decisions should be guided by pragmatism, strategic autonomy, and a long-term perspective, ensuring that India's national interests are safeguarded amidst the evolving global power dynamics.
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