A Historic Night in Trentino-Alto Adige: From Trento to Bolzano
Center-left parties clinch victory once more in Trento's elections, while voter turnout in Bolzano experiences a significant decline.
This past election marked a significant shift in the administrative landscape of Trentino-Alto Adige as 265 municipalities were up for renewing their mayors and city councils, with the capitals of Trento and Bolzano among them, both currently run by the center-left. Here's a rundown of the fascinating results:
Victory for incumbent Franco Ianeselli in Trento
While the final results are yet to be confirmed, it's certain that incumbent mayor Franco Ianeselli has won re-election in Trento with over 54% of the votes, putting him more than 28 points ahead of his center-right challenger Ilaria Goio. This victory secures his continued leadership in the city.
Runoff looming in Bolzano
In contrast, the situation in Bolzano is unfolding differently. The center-right candidate, Claudio Corrarati, currently tops the rankings with 36.3% of the vote, crossing 15,000 votes over his center-left rival, Juri Andriollo (27.3%). Given the difference in voter preferences, a runoff election will take place on May 18, 2025.
The influence of low voter turnout
One prevailing trend seen throughout the election was a significant decline in voter turnout. This may have been partly due to the change in the election structure from two days to just one day on a long weekend. For instance, in Bolzano, only 52.16% of voters cast their ballots compared to 60.65% in 2020. Trento similarly saw a 11% drop in turnout, with only 49.93% of eligible voters showing up.
A historical election in Bolzano
Such a result in Bolzano would mark a historic moment as, if Corrarati wins, it would mark the first time a center-right mayor is elected in the city since Giovanni Benussi, who won with a narrow margin but subsequently stepped down due to a lack of council majority.
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Analysis of Candidates
- Roberto Corrarati (Center-right): Currently ahead in the first round, Corrarati's center-right coalition seems positioned to make a breakthrough in a city historically governed by center or center-left forces. His lead suggests a strong base, but he still needs to secure additional support to win the runoff.
- Riccardo Andriollo (Center-left): Trailing by around nine percentage points, Andriollo will need to consolidate left-leaning voters and possibly attract centrist voters who backed other candidates in the first round.
- Other notable candidates:
- Stephan Konder (South Tyrolean People's Party, SVP) received 15.1%. The SVP traditionally holds significant influence in Bolzano and Alto Adige but did not reach the runoff this time. His voters will be crucial in determining the runoff outcome.
Potential Alliances and Voter Dynamics
- The runoff will hinge on whether candidates like Stephan Konder will align themselves with either Corrarati or Andriollo. Given the center-right's current lead, a coalition comprising centrist or moderate SVP voters could secure Corrarati's victory in the runoff.
- The historical context suggests Bolzano has yet to see a center-right mayor, so this election could potentially indicate a shift in the political landscape, possibly influenced by local issues and broader national trends in Italy's center-right alliances.
Broader Political Context
- Across Alto Adige, the South Tyrolean People's Party (SVP) remains a significant force, with the party winning outright in some other municipalities like Brunico. However, the center-right gains in Bolzano and the runoff in Merano, where SVP's Katharina Zeller faces center-right candidate Dario at the Doctor, suggest a possible regional power shift.
- The center-right coalition nationally includes parties like Lega Nord, Forza Italia, and Brothers of Italy. These parties' growing appeal in northern Italy, including Bolzano, aligns with trends seen in other regional elections.
All these results, particularly the runoff election in Bolzano, indicate a potential shift in the political landscape of Trentino-Alto Adige, with the center-right coalition showing signs of making inroads in a city historically dominated by center or center-left forces (policy-and-legislation). Meanwhile, the average voter turnout has decreased, suggesting general-news discussions about the influence of election structures on voter participation may become more prevalent.
