Census in need of an upgrade: Trump suggests excluding undocumented immigrants for greater precision
In a move that has sparked controversy and legal uncertainty, President Donald Trump has announced plans to seek a new census that would not count undocumented immigrants. This proposal, if implemented, could have significant implications for the reapportionment of Congressional seats, federal funding distribution, and political representation.
Casey Burgat, the Legislative Affairs Program Director at George Washington University, has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of a census before 2030, citing the complexities and challenges that such an action would face. The decennial census is constitutionally mandated to count the "whole number of persons" in the U.S., and excluding undocumented immigrants could make such a change legally contentious.
If the proposal were to be enacted, it could potentially reduce representation for states with higher undocumented immigrant populations. Ernesto Sagás, an expert in politics and U.S. immigration policies, suggests that this could be a strategy by Trump to gain an electoral advantage in the redistricting fight in Texas.
The Census Bureau began planning the 2030 census back in 2019, and the process is extensive and complex, involving years of design, field tests, and nationwide data collection starting on Census Day, April 1 of the census year. The idea of an immediate new census deviating from the established methodology is practically difficult and legally disputed.
Potential implications for the 2030 census include altered reapportionment of Congressional seats, shifts in federal funding distribution, and political and legal battles at both federal and state levels. Some states are already considering how to redraw districts and protect representation under scenarios excluding undocumented immigrants.
Trump's proposal has been met with considerable legal and political pushback, raising questions about constitutional compliance and fairness. The longstanding methodology of counting all residents regardless of status remains a critical issue as planning continues toward the 2030 census.
It's worth noting that both citizens and noncitizens are currently counted in the census, according to the Census Bureau. Sagás emphasizes the importance of having a census count that includes everyone, as it provides valuable information about the population's age, gender, income levels, housing, etc.
Johnston, another expert, has expressed concern that Trump's statements about immigrants might depress census participation, leading to less reliable census data. The count determines the number of seats each state has in Congress and how billions of dollars in federal funds are spent.
At the time of publication, the White House press office, Commerce Department, and Census Bureau did not respond to a request for comment. The next decennial census is set for April 2030, and the future of the census remains uncertain with Trump's proposed changes.
[1] Legal and political experts have expressed skepticism and controversy regarding President Trump’s proposal to conduct a new census excluding undocumented immigrants. [2] Excluding undocumented immigrants could affect congressional seat apportionment, federal funding allocations, and political representation, potentially disadvantaging states with large immigrant populations. [3] Conducting a completely new census every 10 years is unprecedented. [4] In 2019, Trump's attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census was rejected by the Supreme Court. [5] Sagás pointed out that conducting a census before 2030 would be a huge uphill battle due to the complexity and constitutionality of the action. [6] Jones also suggested that the administration might try to reintroduce the citizenship question to the census form instead of omitting noncitizens from the count. [7] Burgat suggested that Trump's statements about the census and undocumented immigrants might serve as a distraction from various issues and provide his base with a rallying cry if something goes against him in the next election. [8] Jones mentioned that if noncitizens are not counted for congressional apportionment, two states most likely to be harmed are red states, Florida, and Texas. [9] Sagás mentioned that Republicans are considering not counting undocumented immigrants for congressional apportionment, which could potentially harm red states like Florida and Texas. [10] There would be challenges against using the data from an irregular census to reapportion U.S. House seats and thus electoral college seats. [11] It's unclear how the data from an irregular census would be used. [12] Trump has instructed the Department of Commerce to begin work on a new census based on modern day facts and figures. [13] Ernesto Sagás, an expert in politics and U.S. immigration policies, suggested that Trump's latest statement about the census is a strategy to gain an electoral advantage in the redistricting fight in Texas. [14] Johnson expressed concern that Trump's statements about immigrants might depress census participation, leading to less reliable census data. [15] Sagás emphasized the importance of having a census count that includes everyone, not just citizens, as it provides valuable information about the population's age, gender, income levels, housing, etc.
- The proposal to conduct a new census excluding undocumented immigrants has sparked legal and political controversy, with experts questioning its feasibility and implications on congressional seat apportionment, federal funding allocations, and political representation.
- If enacted, a new census deviating from the established methodology every 10 years could face substantial legal and practical difficulties, including constitutional questions, potential data inaccuracies, and irregularities in the reapportionment of Congressional seats and federal funding distribution.
