"Celebrations are off-limits for Lukashenko this time around"
West-2025: A Looming Threat to Ukraine's Border?
Military analyst Alexander Kovalenko, voice of "Observer", warns of potential dangers brewing with the upcoming "West-2025" joint Belarusian-Russian drills set to unfold this autumn. Here's why it's worth keeping an eye on the hype:
Right now, no strike group marshaled on Belarusian soil is capable of launching a full-on assault on Kyiv or nearby urban centers in northern Ukraine. However, the danger lingers.
The level of peril depends on how the Russian forces change their game in the coming days. Even if they reconvene around 40-60 thousand strong, the threat wouldn't be overly intimidating to Kyiv or its suburbs, but to border areas. A case in point? Northern Kharkiv and Sumy regions, where the Russians realized they were up against a wall.
Sending an okay signal to consolidate a grouping on Belarusian turf, Alexander Lukashenko should be mindful that a 2022 mindset won't fly today.
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The Belarusian-Russian joint military exercises "West-2025," slated for mid-September 2025, present several brewing threats to Ukraine. Although current evaluations indicate the threat is not immediate, it could escalate as the exercises intensify.
Potential Threats Facing Ukraine
- Military Offensives and Provocations Ukrainian border guards and officials are not ruling out provocations by Russian forces in Belarus, which could be employed as a stepping stone for offensive operations against Ukraine, particularly in the northern regions such as Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Chernihiv. President Zelensky touched upon a hypothetical risk of Russia exploiting these exercises as a façade for a military offensive in these areas[1][2].
- Troop Presence and Escalation Risks With currently no substantial Russian forces in Belarus to pose an immediate threat, apprehension is growing as the concentration of troops could swell during the exercises, potentially resulting in "demonstrative actions" or skirmishes near Ukraine’s northern border. Ukraine is monitoring the situation closely and reinforcing its defense along that frontier[3][4].
- Use of Belarusian Territory for Logistics and Offensive Operations The 2022 Russian offensive, launched from Belarus into Kyiv and utilization of Belarusian territory for logistics, is still a fresh memory. Large military exercises in Belarus have previously served as precursors to such operations, implying that West-2025 may be used in a similar fashion to stage or facilitate an attack on Ukraine[3].
- Regional Threat Scenarios Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service chief suggests the exercises simulate confrontation scenarios between Russian-backed alliances and Western-supported countries. A part of the training includes dangerous maneuvers involving control over the Suwałki Gap (a corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad), threatening NATO allies like the Baltic countries and Poland. While this widens the strategic peril beyond Ukraine, it highlights the potential for escalating instability in the region[5].
Disputing Factors
- Exercise Location Inside Belarus President Zelensky and intelligence reports imply the exercises may be conducted deep within Belarus to avoid a direct immediate threat to Ukraine’s border. The Belarusian leadership might be hesitant about inciting Ukraine or provoking a military response[2].
- Absence of Current Strike Groups Ukrainian spokespeople confirm there are no current Russian strike groups stationed in Belarus capable of posing a direct menace, suggesting that at present the risk remains manageable but deserving of careful scrutiny[4].
- The potential dangers of the upcoming Belarusian-Russian joint military exercises,West-2025, can extend beyond immediate military offensives and provocations in northern Ukraine, particularly in Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Chernihiv regions, as the exercises could also involve dangerous maneuvers that threaten NATO allies like the Baltic countries and Poland, such as control over the Suwałki Gap.
- Although no substantial Russian forces in Belarus currently pose an immediate threat, close attention should be paid to the escalation risks, as the concentration of troops could swell during the exercises, potentially leading to demonstrative actions or skirmishes near Ukraine’s northern border, and the use of Belarusian territory for logistics and offensive operations, considering the historical precedent of such actions during the 2022 Russian offensive.
