Cavs-Pacers Game 4 Betting Preview: Odds, Analysis, and Top Player Proposals
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The Cavaliers will be aiming to even their Eastern Conference semifinal series with the Pacers at two games apiece on May 11, 2025. After a rough start at home, the top-seeded Cavaliers glanced a lifeline in Game 3 with a dominant 126-104 win.
Now, they're headed to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with the Cavs being sizable road favorites once again in the NBA odds.
Here's a quick look at the Game 4 Cavaliers vs Pacers odds, picks, player props, and predictions on May 11:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Odds & Betting Lines
The Cavaliers are heavy -228 favorites on the moneyline, giving Cleveland a 69.51% implied win probability. The Pacers come back as +185 home underdogs, which is just a 35.09% implied win probability. The total has come down 1.5 points since Game 3, with the teams staying under the 232.0 total by two points.
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The first two games of the series both hit the over: Indiana's 121-112 win in Game 1 went over the 229.0 total by four points, while the Pacers' 120-119 comeback victory in Game 2 flew over the 227.5-point total by 12.5 points.
In Game 3, Donovan Mitchell was, once again, the catalyst of the Cleveland offense, pouring in 43 of the team's 126 points. Every single member of Indiana's starting five averaged between 15.0 and 17.0 PPG in the series, but no single player on the Indiana side has scored more than 53 points for the series.
While Indiana lacks a go-to scorer, they make up for it with depth and balance. The two main differences between Game 1 and Game 3 were poor perimeter shooting by the Pacers and a massive rebounding advantage for the Cavaliers, especially on the offensive end.
CLE vs IND Game 4 Player Props
NBA player props from DraftKings on May 11.
Mitchell's prolific performances in the first three games of the series have led to his point total rising from 26.5 in Game 1 to 28.5 in Game 2 to 29.5 in Game 3. He's scored at least 33 in each of the first three games and is averaging 41.3 PPG in the series on 47.2% shooting, though he's just 7-of-31 from beyond the arc (22.6%).
Pascal Siakam had the highest point total on the Indiana side at 18.5. However, he hasn't gone over 18 points in five straight games after opening the postseason with three straight 20-plus-point games.
Tyrese Haliburton has seen his assist total drop from 10.5 in the first three games of the series to 9.5 in Game 4. The Indiana point guard averaged 11.8 assists per game in the first six playoff contests this year, but has just nine, combined, in the last two.
Cavaliers vs Pacers Picks & Predictions (Game 4)
- Pacers moneyline (+194) at FanDuel
- Siakam under 18.5 (-120) at bet365
While the Cavaliers' performance is undeniably impressive this season, I refuse to believe their shooting leap from last year to this season is sustainable. If the Pacers shoot at their usual clip from deep and don't get absolutely massacred on the glass, Game 4 will look very different from Game 3.
At +194 at FanDuel, Indiana only needs a 35% win probability to be good value on the moneyline. The odds have swung way too far in Cleveland's direction after one victory. (Indiana was +178 ahead of Game 3.)
However, I am going to bet Siakam to stay under 18.5 points for the sixth straight game. He just isn't getting enough looks/usage to warrant a point total this high. His 15.2 FGA per game is down to 13.6 in the playoffs as a whole and 12.2 against Cleveland.
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- In the NBA game on May 11, 2025, the Cavaliers, despite being the favorites, are considered the underdogs by some, with a 35.09% implied win probability according to sports betting odds.
- For the Game 4 Cavaliers vs Pacers matchup on May 11, the moneyline odds favor the Cavaliers heavily at -228, while the Pacers are underdogs at +185.
- Despite being the top-seeded team, the Cavaliers have a handicap to overcome as they face the Pacers again on May 11, with the NBA odds stacked against them, particularly as road favorites.
- The spread for Game 4 is under close watch, considering the underdog Pacers could potentially exploit their depth and balance against the favored Cavaliers, especially if the Pacers' shooting performance improves.
- Despite Donovan Mitchell's prolific performances and rising point totals in the series, some sports bettors might lean towards the Pacers' moneyline (+194 at FanDuel) or Pascal Siakam under 18.5 points (-120 at bet365) in an effort to capitalize on the perceived handicap of the top-seeded Cavaliers.
