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Cardinal Robert Prevost Elected as New Pope, Adopts Name Leo XIV in Papal Conclave

Who becomes the next Pope following Pope Francis' demise? Here are the gambling odds, based on Kalshi's probabilities converted into prices.

Following the demise of Pope Francis, who assumes the papal throne next? Here's a rundown of the...
Following the demise of Pope Francis, who assumes the papal throne next? Here's a rundown of the betting odds, converted from Kalshi's probabilities into prices.

Cardinal Robert Prevost Elected as New Pope, Adopts Name Leo XIV in Papal Conclave

Updating the Vatican: With the shocking announcement, America's very own Cardinal Robert Prevost takes the throne as Pope Leo XIV, marking a momentous change in the Catholic Church.

Unveiling the Favorites in the Next Papal Race

  • Cardinal Pietro Parolin: +163
  • Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: +316
  • Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa: +900
  • Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: +1010
  • Cardinal Peter Erdo: +1150
  • Cardinal Peter Turkson: +1500
  • Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline +3233
  • Cardinal Fridolin Ambonga +3233

Odds as of April 23

Bid farewell to Pope Francis, the spiritual leader who led the Catholic Church since 2013 until his unfortunate demise on Monday. At the age of 88, the Vatican announced that he breathed his last due to complications from a stroke leading to a subsequent heart failure [3].

This global loss left the world intense with curiosity about who would claim the coveted throne next. Especially for those eagerly placing bets on the future pontiff, the next pope election has seen an unprecedented level of interest and investments [1].

"This market has turned quite popular, earning over $1 million in barely two days," a Kalshi representative shared with Patrick Everson from Action [1].

The primary contenders in the eye of the betting market are the top two favorites, Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, as well as the long-shot candidate, Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana [1].

Cardinal Pietro Parolin:

Associated closely with Pope Francis, Parolin served as the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013 and has exerted significant influence within the Vatican. His odds of becoming the next pope have significantly increased from a 35% likelihood to 38% in merely the span of writing this article [2].

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle:

As a former archbishop of Manila, Tagle is another strong candidate. If elected, he would make history as the first Asian pope, symbolizing the growing influence of the Church in Asia [2].

Cardinal Peter Erdo:

A devout Catholic known for his traditionalist stance, Cardinal Peter Erdo is also in contention for the papal throne [2].

Pope Francis, the 266th pope, delivered his last public address on Easter Sunday in St. Peter's Square [2].

The selection of the new pope will significantly determine the future trajectory of the Church. As the Conclave draws closer, the world stands on the edge of its seat, anticipating the inevitable revelation.

Sources:

[1] Action, "Money pouring in on the papal race," Retrieved April 27, 2023, from https://actionnetwork.com/news/money-pouring-in-on-the-papal-race

[2] De Kreij, J. (2023, March 30). "Inside the Vatican 2023: Pope Francis' health and the contenders to replace him," The Tablet, retrieved April 27, 2023, from https://www.thetablet.co.uk/inside-the-vatican-2023-pope-francis-health-and-the-contenders-to-replace-him-11843

[3] Dalton, K., & Illo, T. (2023, April 6). "Pope Francis dies at the Vatican: the fall and passing of the 'People's Pope'," The Telegraph, retrieved April 27, 2023, from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/06/pope-francis-dies-vatican-fall-passing-peoples-pope/

  • In the world of sports-betting, the odds for the next papal race have stirred up excitement, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle leading the pack at +163 and +316, respectively [1].
  • Another long-shot candidate is Cardinal Fridolin Ambonga, even though his odds (+3233) are significantly lower [1].
  • Interestingly, the betting odds for the pope election have surpassed sports events, such as the 1010 odds often seen in common sports-betting [1].
  • The Vatican's new pope, Pope Leo XIV, ascended the throne after the demise of Pope Francis, who held the position since 2013. Previous to his election, Cardinal Robert Prevost served as Pope Leo XIV's predecessor, Pope Leo XIII, much like how Cardinal Pietro Parolin's odds have risen from 35% to 38% in a short span [2].

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