Canadian Parliamentary elections outcomes: key insights following the triumph of Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney
A seemingly impossible comeback. In recent polls, the Liberal Party trailed by a staggering 20 points, but to the surprise of many, they snatched victory in Canada's snap legislative elections on the 28th of April, 2025. According to projections by numerous local media outlets, including CBC, the party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to garner the most seats in the House of Commons.
The Liberals have, thus, secured a rare fourth consecutive term at the helm of the country, as CBC reminds us. They are neck and neck with the Conservative Party, with 43.5% and 41.4% of the vote, respectively, according to partial results reported by the Canadian radio at 10 AM French time.
For quite some time, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, enjoyed broad popularity among Canadians, tired of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who had been in power for nearly ten years. Trudeau's resignation, pushed out by his own party, and Donald Trump's return to the White House shifted the political landscape. Trump's first day in office saw him launch a trade war against his main ally by imposing 25% tariffs on steel and automobile imports. Since November, he has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st United States state.
: FEATURE. Canada's legislative elections: how Donald Trump's trade war helped the Liberal Party "rise from the dead" Political neophyte, Mark Carney took office in early 2025, succeeding Trudeau as a result of an internal vote. This former governor of the central banks of Canada and England immediately called for snap elections. Carney campaigned on his promise to stand up to Donald Trump, in the midst of a trade war between the two allied countries. On election day, Carney secured his first seat as a member of parliament by winning the vote in the riding of Nepean, a suburb of the capital Ottawa.
... BUILDING ON CONTROVERSY
Despite the Liberals being likely to have more MPs than any other party, they will not reach the 172 seats required for a majority in the House of Commons, following an electoral reform. According to projections from the Canadian public radio, based on partial results, the ruling party would only stand victorious in 168 ridings. Mark Carney, thus, would need to form a minority government, necessitating support from one or more other political parties.
During the previous term, the Liberals relied on the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP) to pass their bills in the federal parliament. This time, the NDP, suffering a significant loss, would only secure seven seats, according to CBC projections. Defeated in his own riding, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced his resignation as leader of his party.
The Conservative Party is reported to have 144 seats, a 25-seat increase compared to 2021, according to CBC. "We've won over 20 seats, and achieved our highest vote percentage since 1988", celebrated leader Pierre Poilievre. Despite a drop (around 20 seats compared to 32 in 2021), the Quebec sovereignists of the Bloc Quebecois remain the third-largest party. Lastly, the Green Party managed to win only a single seat.
Mark Carney Calls for Unity Against Donald Trump
In his victory speech, the leader of the Liberal Party reaffirmed that the "old relationship with the United States was over". The campaign for the legislative elections was marked by a wave of Canadian nationalism against Donald Trump. "The United States wants our lands, our resources, our water. These are not idle threats", Carney warned his supporters on Monday evening. "Trump is trying to break us to possess us. That will never happen", Carney pledged the Liberal Prime Minister. "We've moved past the shock of American betrayal, but we must never forget its lessons", he added, calling the country to unite for the "difficult months ahead that will require sacrifices". This appeal was echoed by the opposition. In a speech acknowledging his defeat, Pierre Poilievre assured that "the Conservatives will work with the Prime Minister and all parties to defend Canada's interests and secure a new trade deal that puts tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty".
1. As Mark Carney navigates a minority government, he will widely require the support of other political parties, particularly the New Democratic Party (NDP), to pass policy-and-legislation.2. Due to a significant loss in the 2025 elections, the NDP Leader, Jagmeet Singh, may be required to resign, possibly leading to a change in leadership within the party.3. In response to Donald Trump's trade war and potential annexation threats, the Liberals built their campaign on a policy of standing up against war-and-conflicts and protecting Canada's sovereignty.4. Despite losing ground compared to the 2021 elections, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre has shown a resurgence, securing 144 seats and increasing their vote percentage significantly.5. In Canada's general news landscape, the Liberal Party's successful comeback from a seemingly impossible deficit in polls was a widely discussed political event, characterized as a "rise from the dead."
