Canada's pipeline expansion could add $31.4B to GDP annually by 2035
A new report from ATB Financial highlights the economic potential of expanding Canada's pipeline network. The study suggests that additional projects could boost the country's GDP by an average of $31.4 billion each year over the next decade. This growth would come alongside a significant rise in oil production and job creation. The report, titled The GDP Payoff of Additional Pipeline Capacity, examines the impact of several pipeline proposals currently under review. If approved, these projects could increase Canada's oil output by 1.5 million barrels per day—equivalent to a third of the nation's current production. The economic benefits would extend beyond energy, with an estimated 112,000 new jobs created over ten years, peaking at 136,100 during construction.
The findings align with recent trends in Canada's economy. In 2025, GDP grew by 1.7%, slightly below the 2% average of previous years. However, the report argues that new energy infrastructure could lift annual GDP growth by an additional 1.1% on average. Mark Parsons, vice-president and chief economist at ATB Financial, emphasised that such investments would deliver substantial long-term gains.
The analysis follows the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in 2024, which cost the federal government nearly $35 billion, including the $4.5 billion purchase from Kinder Morgan in 2018. While that project faced delays and cost overruns, the report suggests that further expansions could yield far greater economic returns.
Jobs generated by these projects would span multiple industries, from general labour and engineering to steel manufacturing and support services. The ripple effects would extend across the supply chain, providing a broader boost to the economy. The proposed pipeline projects could add $31.4 billion annually to Canada's GDP over the next decade. They would also create over 100,000 jobs and increase oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. The report's projections depend on the approval and construction of several pipelines currently under consideration.
