Canada's Election Outcome: Importance and Polling Data

Millions of Canadians are lined up to vote in the nation's 45th general election on Monday, as they decide the new government.

This election is happening under the cloud of a trade war with the United States and during a period of economic instability for the world's second-largest nation by area.

When do polls open and close?

The first Canadian polls opened at 8:30am on Monday (11:00 GMT) in the eastern province of Newfoundland and Labrador. The last polls to open will be in the westernmost province of British Columbia, at 7am local time (14:00 GMT).

In each of Canada's six time zones, voting stations stay open for 12 hours.

At 7pm on Monday (02:00 GMT, Tuesday), British Columbia will close its ballots.

When will we know the results?

As soon as the polls close in each respective time zone, ballot counting begins.

Early results from areas where polls close first, such as Newfoundland, could be available by around 8:30pm (23:00 GMT).

Elections Canada, an independent, impartial government agency, projects counting the "majority" of votes on election night. Preliminary results are usually made available as Canadian media announce winners based on their independent analysis.

Elections Canada posts final, official results around six months after the end of election day.

How does voting work in Canada?

Eligible voters are assigned a polling station based on their home address, which they can find by entering their postal code on the Elections Canada website.

At the polling station, they prove their identity and address with a government-issued ID, like a driver's license, to get a ballot paper. They then mark the circle next to the candidate they want to vote for; the candidate with the most votes wins in that electoral district or "riding", becoming a member of parliament (MP).

The party with the most MPs usually forms the government, and its leader becomes the prime minister. Canadians do not vote directly for the prime minister.

Who are the leading parties and their top candidates?

Canada has four main federal political parties.

The Liberal Party has governed Canada most frequently, winning most elections since the country was founded in 1867. Their primary rival is the Conservative Party (and earlier conservative parties such as the old "Progressive Conservatives").

The Liberals have been in power since 2015, led by Justin Trudeau until he resigned in January. The interim prime minister, now one of the year's top candidates, is Mark Carney. He's facing off against the Conservative and official opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, an MP from the Ottawa area known for his populist style.

They are also competing against the more left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. The NDP held 24 seats in the outgoing House of Commons and supported the Liberals in a minority government deal. However, the partnership ended last September. Their best result has been being the official opposition once after the 2011 election.

Bloc Quebecois has 33 seats in the outgoing house and is led by Yves-Francois Blanchet. The party fields candidates only in French-speaking Quebec and endeavors to advance the province's interests. There is also the Green Party and the right-wing People's Party, but they are much smaller and aren't projected to make significant gains this election.

Who is winning the Canadian election according to polls?

Until mid-January, Poilievre-led Conservatives held a commanding lead of up to 26 percentage points over the Liberals, placing them on track to shift the balance of power this year with a majority government.

However, their popularity has since fallen, while the Liberal Party's support has surged. As of now, polls show the Liberals are leading the Conservatives in a close race.

The Canadian Broadcasting Company Poll Tracker, which aggregates national polling data, had the Liberals with 42.8 percent support, compared to 39.2 percent for the Conservatives on the eve of the election on Sunday.

The NDP trailed in third place with 8.1 percent, followed by Bloc Quebecois at 6 percent. The Greens had 1.8 percent, and the People's Party had 1.3 percent.

This dramatic shift came after Trudeau stepped down and Carney took over as Liberal leader. Additionally, there are rising concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive approach toward Canada.

An Ipsos poll from March 20 found that 41 percent of respondents trusted Carney to negotiate with Trump, compared with 31 percent for Poilievre. The poll showed 43 percent believed Poilievre would "yield" to Trump's demands, almost twice as many as those who held the same view about Carney.

Poilievre and other opposition leaders have focused their campaigns on issues such as affordability, including rising grocery and housing costs.

However, experts argue that Trump's tariffs and threats to make Canada the "51st state" of the U.S. have shifted the campaign's focus. What matters most to many Canadians now is who they believe can best stand up to Washington.

What does Canada look like in 2025?

More than 28.9 million Canadians are qualified to cast their ballots in this election from 10 provinces and three territories, electing the 45th parliament.

They reside in a country with about 41.5 million inhabitants, where most people live in urban areas. The quality of life for them is generally high as Canada ranks 18th in the Human Development Index, with an average life expectancy of 82 years.

Economically, Canada's GDP is one of the top 15 globally, at $2.14 trillion. The Canadian dollar is stable, and inflation was low at 2.3 percent in March.

However, expenses are rising while opportunities are dwindling. Canada's unemployment rate in March was 6.7 percent, and the country lost 32,600 jobs, marking the first decrease in more than three years. This decline was predominantly driven by a sharp decrease in full-time positions, according to Statistics Canada. Among young people, unemployment reached its highest levels in 2024 and mainly affected Black, Indigenous, and other ethnic minorities.

What is Canada's political system like?

Canada is a parliamentary democracy, with laws being made and decisions being taken by an elected parliament. As it is also a constitutional monarchy, British King Charles III serves as the ceremonial head of state, and his governor general formally approves laws passed by parliament.

Canadian citizens elect members of the House of Commons. If a party secures a majority by winning at least 172 seats, it forms a majority government. If they win fewer than that, they can still form a minority government with support from other parties.

There is also an upper house of parliament, the Senate, whose members are appointed by the prime minister. The Senate primarily reviews, suggests changes to, and approves laws passed by the House of Commons.

What are the key political issues?

Trump's tariffs and threats to Canadian goods have dramatically reshaped domestic politics and public opinion, potentially boosting support for the Liberals because of concerns about Canadian independence.

Affordability and housing issues are also important for Canadians, with 33 percent saying inflation and healthcare are significant issues. Consumer prices are skyrocketing, and inflation is projected to increase due to the U.S. tariffs, according to Statistics Canada.

Access to affordable healthcare is a significant challenge for many Canadians, with increasing wait times or the need to pay out of pocket for essential health services. The median wait for a referral from a general practitioner reached 27.7 weeks in 2024, up from the 20.9 weeks in 2019, according to the Fraser Institute, a libertarian-conservative Canadian public policy think tank. According to media reports, approximately 6.5 million Canadians are without a family doctor, and one-third of them struggle to get appointments.

What is the usual voter turnout?

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, the global average voter turnout in national elections in 2023 dropped to 55 percent from 65.2 percent in 2008. Canada has a higher turnout, with the 2021 election garnering participation from 62.6 percent of eligible voters.

In the past 100 years, Canada has held 33 elections, with its highest voter turnout reaching 79.4 percent in 1958. The lowest national turnout was 58.5 percent in 2011.

This year's 7.3 million advance votes shattered the previous record of 5.8 million, set during the 2021 election.

The 45th general election in Canada is taking place under the shadow of a trade war with the United States and economic instability.
With an astounding 7.3 million early votes cast, Canadians are preparing to decide the new government on Monday.
The polls opened at 8:30am in Newfoundland and Labrador, the easternmost province, and will close at 7am local time in British Columbia, the westernmost province.
Elections Canada projects counting the "majority" of votes on election night, with preliminary results available around 8:30pm (23:00 GMT).
The Liberal Party, led by interim prime minister Mark Carney, and the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, are the leading parties.
The Canadian Broadcasting Company Poll Tracker, as of the eve of the election, had the Liberals leading the Conservatives by a narrow margin.
Key political issues in this election include Trump's tariffs, affordability, and access to healthcare, particularly with increasing wait times and the need for out-of-pocket payments for essential services.