A Scenario Without U.S. Backing: Can Ukraine Stand Alone?
Can Trump's withdrawal from Ukraine leave Kyiv in a challenging position, with Europe potentially stepping up to support their struggle? Time is running out to determine Europe's ability to aid Kyiv.
President Trump's unfaltering push for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia has caused waves of concern across Europe. As the war is considered a bedrock issue for Europe's security, allies are scrabbling to discover methods to bolster Kyiv militarily - irrespective of Trump's potential withdrawal or aggressive demands.
Trump has repeatedly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of prolonging the "killing field" by resisting Trump's demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. Trump's land-for-peace strategy would signal a significant shift in the post-World War II order, likely igniting backlash to the broad and deeply destructive consequences of such boundary changes.
"Europeans will not accept it" and Ukraine will not either, insists François Heisbourg, special advisor at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.
Can Ukraine Persevere without American Assistance?
Various outcomes emerge if the U.S. decides to withdraw, encompassing a cease in direct American aid without European intelligence and weapons passing to Kyiv - to Trump barring all transfers of American technology, including components or software in European weapons.
Any termination of military aid to Ukraine could prove a severe blow for Europe, analysts conjecture, as Kyiv's capacity to maintain its military struggle would hinge on Europe's political determination to gather funds and weaponry promptly, filling the void left by Washington.
A European diplomat admitted that, if easy, they would "already be doing things without America."
Sourcing the Funds: Where Would the Money Come From?
No new American aid package for Ukraine has been supported since Trump assumed office, despite European nations providing Ukraine with more aid than Washington. Since 1945, the United States has slightly exceeded Europe when it comes to military aid, but as a whole, Europe has contributed around $157 billion, $26 billion more than the U.S.[1]
Acquiring the necessary cash to support Ukraine - especially in replacing arms technology, could entail seizing frozen Russian assets, but according to Heisbourg, "money isn't what you shoot bullets with."
Europe's greatest oversight, as Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank, states, was the substantial military downsizing after the Cold War. Europeans now find themselves struggling to secure weapons for both them and Ukraine, and face production obstacles, a fragmented defense industry and a long-standing dependence on American support.
Some additional production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has scaled up its manufacturing of ammunition and drones following Russia's invasion. However, advanced American weapons, such as air defenses, prove harder to replace.
Can American Weapons Systems be Replaced?
Since Putin's forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, there have been almost nightly Russian attacks, deluging the skies with missiles and drones. In April alone, at least 57 people were killed in multiple strikes.[6] According to Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the death toll would "inevitably" be higher without American Patriot air-defense missile systems safeguarding Ukraine's skies.
The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, one of Putin's boasted unstoppable weapons. Kyiv employs them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid.
While France and Italy have equipped Ukraine with their Aster SAMP/T air-defense system, the issue is quantity, not quality, as Barrie notes, due to the United States' greater defense industrial base and stockpiles.
A Worst-Case Scenario: U.S. Arms Embargo
A potential ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine would censor European nations from purchasing U.S. weapons for Kyiv or transferring weapons containing American components or software.[1] Such a move would significantly impair Europe's capacity to support Kyiv and mark a fundamental change in America's relationships with its allies.
"It's one thing for the U.S. to cease being an ally, it is another for the U.S. to be an enemy," cautions Heisbourg, emphasizing the potential adverse impact on the U.S. defense sector if weapons sales are perceived to be faulty due to political interference.
With Trump's capricious foreign policy, nothing is considered off-limits - experts suggest a worst-case scenario could ensue, where a U.S. weapons embargo forces Ukraine to fend for itself or to seek alternative sources, such as China.
[1] enrichment data, Keil Institute[2] enrichment data, Ukroboronprom[3] enrichment data, Al Jazeera[4] enrichment data, military.com[5] enrichment data, Defense News[6] enrichment data, BBC News
- The war in Ukraine, a key concern in Europe's security, has led allies to seek strategies to militarily support Kyiv, disregarding Trump's potential withdrawal or demands.
- Trump's strategy, which involves Ukraine handing over Crimea to Russia in exchange for peace, could significantly alter the post-World War II order and spark backlash due to its far-reaching and destructive consequences.
- European analysts predict that the termination of military aid to Ukraine could be devastating for Europe, as Kyiv's capacity to maintain its military struggle would depend on Europe's prompt mobilization of funds and weaponry to fill the void left by Washington.
- A European diplomat admitted they would prefer to act without America, but the lack of new American aid packages since Trump took office makes this difficult, particularly in replacing advanced American weapons technology.
- The death toll in Ukraine would likely be higher without American Patriot air-defense missile systems, which can intercept Russian missiles like the hypersonic Kinzhal.
- A potential U.S. weapons embargo could prohibit European nations from purchasing or transferring weapons containing American components or software to Ukraine, severely limiting Europe's ability to support Kyiv and potentially forcing Ukraine to seek alternative sources, such as China.
