Can Radical Political Candidates Secure Election Victories?
In the current political climate, the electability of ideologically extreme candidates like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump has become a topic of great interest. Matthew McIntosh, an author, delves into the factors that influence the success of such candidates in general elections.
Voter base polarization and appeal play a significant role. Extreme candidates tend to energize a passionate core of supporters but may alienate moderate and independent voters necessary for a general election majority. For instance, Sanders' focus on economic inequality and workers' rights resonates with underrepresented or dissatisfied groups, but his democratic socialist label may be off-putting to some general election voters.
The ability of these candidates to connect with widespread economic or social concerns can boost their appeal. However, political elites often view these candidates with skepticism or wariness, concerned that strong ideological positions may hurt the party’s chances in general elections. This leads to efforts to either moderate their message or support more centrist alternatives to improve overall electability.
Media portrayal and public perception also play a crucial role. Media framing can amplify perceptions of extremity or disruptiveness, affecting broader voter attitudes positively or negatively. Shifts in voter demographics or particular group support, such as gender gaps and generational divides, also influence how ideologically extreme candidates fare in the general electorate.
Looking at the Republican Party, concerns around candidates like Trump include fears that his past and current policy positions may be "radioactive" for some general election voters. If Trump loses, Republican elites might attribute his loss to his ideological extremism, pushing the party farther to the right. Conversely, if Trump wins, his victory could reinforce the belief among some Republicans that nominating conservatives is beneficial, much like Ronald Reagan's nomination in 1980.
Phyllis Schlafly's 1964 book, A Choice Not An Echo, argued for the nomination of a true conservative in the Republican Party. Her idea, that nominating a conservative would be rewarded with voter support, has grown in power within the Republican Party. Sanders, with his level of support, can be seen as the Democratic manifestation of this line of thinking, suggesting that the Schlafly line of thinking has taken hold among some in the Democratic Party.
However, Trump's ideological position is complicated, having flip-flopped on nearly every major issue, including advocating for single-payer healthcare. This ideological incoherence may make it difficult to place him on the traditional, liberal-conservative spectrum.
The way Republican elites interpret their losses will significantly influence the general direction of the party. Similarly, if Trump wins, his interpretation of the result will be crucial in determining the general direction of the party.
[1] McIntosh, Matthew. "The Electability of Ideologically Extreme Candidates." The Conversation, 2021. [2] Buchler, Justin. Associate Professor of Political Science, Case Western Reserve University. Personal communication, 2021.
- Migration and conflicts often fuel voter discontent, providing fertile ground for ideologically extreme candidates to gain traction, as seen with the focus of Bernie Sanders on economic inequality and workers' rights.
- Policy-and-legislation plays a significant role in shaping perceptions of ideological extremism, with war-and-conflicts, crime-and-justice, and car-accidents themselves becoming political issues.
- General-news media outlets may influence public perception of extreme candidates by framing them as either disruptive or inspiring, impacting voter attitudes and support for the candidates.
- Accidents, such as fires, can have political implications when they occur during a campaign, potentially overshadowing a candidate's message or impacting their electability in the eyes of voters.
