Is Israel Able to Overthrow Hamas?
The ongoing Gaza conflict, which has dragged on for ten weeks now, has left a trail of destruction and suffering in its wake. The death toll stands at approximately 19,000, per unverified statistics from the Palestinian health authority, which places Hamas, an Islamist organization, in close proximity. Entire neighborhoods lie in ruins. Following the deadliest massacre in Israeli history, which saw terrorists from Hamas and other militant groups wreak havoc in Israeli border towns, abducting 249 individuals, committing atrocities against civilians, and perpetrating unspeakable acts of violence, Israel launched retaliatory strikes against positions in Gaza. Can Israel dismantle Hamas's political and military leadership in the process?
What Does Israel Say?
Israel's objective is to ensure that Hamas poses no threat to its security in the future. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reaffirmed his commitment to continuing the fight against Hamas "until absolute victory." In drawing parallels with Germany's transformation post-Nazi dictatorship, Netanyahu stressed the importance of civilization in the Gaza Strip following the expected destruction of Hamas.
Palestinians' Take on the Situation
Political activist and columnist Jamal Zakkut from the West Bank believes it is impossible to eliminate Hamas, a popular sentiment among Palestinians. Its popularity increases further in the face of Israel's actions during the conflict in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, according to recent polls. In the aftermath of the Israeli massacre and subsequent crisis, Hamas's reputation saw a significant boost, with more than 40% of respondents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip expressing support for the Islamist group. Conversely, only 1% of the West Bank population and 17% in Gaza believe Israel can destroy Hamas. The majority expect Hamas to maintain control of Gaza Strip in the long term.
Hamas's Perspective
The leader of Hamas maintains that the organization will survive the conflict, dismissing plans that do not prioritize its presence in Gaza as an "illusion." Hamas's goals center on wiping Israel from the map. This stance has earned the support of Qatar, which is involved in mediating the conflict and is known for its backing of Islamist groups such as Hamas.
Analysts' Viewpoint
While Israeli experts argue that Hamas can be eliminated theoretically, analyst Ryan Bohl counters that underlying ideological causes must be addressed to effectively weaken the group. He emphasizes the necessity of acknowledging a two-state solution as the only possible alternative to incessant conflict in the region.
Germany's Position
In response to the Israeli massacre, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has defended Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip, conceding that Israel has the right to subdue Hamas and prevent future atrocities. Hamas representatives has repeatedly declared a willingness to perpetrate additional massacres.
Sources
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Israel and international experts are in debate about the possibility of dismantling Hamas's military and political leadership, viewing the situation with both optimism and skepticism. The current conflict in Gaza shows the complexity and challenges posed by the circumstances.
Israeli Perspective
- Military Strategy: Israel has consistently focused on dismantling Hamas's military capabilities and leadership.
- Humanitarian Crisis: The devastation inflicted on Gaza, including the destruction of over 85% of its buildings and loss of countless lives, is a primary focus of Israeli military strategy.
- Hostage Crisis: The ongoing hostage situation with tens of thousands of Palestinians displaced and many hostages still held by Hamas adds to the complexity of the situation, further complicating negotiations for a ceasefire and release of hostages.
International Expert Views
- Strategic Failure: Many analysts argue that Hamas has suffered significant strategic failures, particularly in terms of its military capabilities, despite this, the Islamist group has persisted, claiming victory through endurance.
- Governance Models: International experts propose various governance models for Gaza, including a National Unity government, civil administration with international mediation, and the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, all of which require Hamas to temporarily relinquish its political dominance to allow for internal Palestinian reconciliation and international oversight.
- Hamas's Changing Stance: Some Hamas officials have indicated a willingness to step down from power in Gaza, potentially marking a shift in strategy. The openness to this change reflects the pressures imposed by regional powers and international stakeholders advocating for the Palestinian Authority to regain control of Gaza.
- Humanitarian and Economic Pressures: The ongoing conflict has resulted in severe humanitarian and economic crises in Gaza. Pressure from internal divisions within Hamas and these crises make it increasingly difficult for the movement to maintain its rule, potentially forcing Hamas to reconsider its leadership role in Gaza in the future, seeking guarantees to preserve its political position in Palestinian politics.
In summary, although Israel focuses on dismantling Hamas's military and political leadership, international experts recognize the complexities and challenges posed by the situation. The continued conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian and economic crises, which may eventually prompt Hamas to reconsider its leadership role in Gaza.
