Can Iran recover?
Surprise attack on Iran's nuclear sites wasn't a sudden move. It's been brewing for years, as Israel had been methodically setting the stage, taking out high-ranking Iranian officials, scientists, and proxy forces in the region. Yet, somehow, the wars in the Middle East managed to avoid erupting. Will this time be any different? It's anyone's guess, but one thing is certain: Iran has suffered a significant blow, and Israel is steadfast in their determination to see this through to the end. Here's the latest on the ongoing tension in the Middle East, as discussed with Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Middle East and Central Asia Center at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
An Unwanted Scorched Earth War?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu long planned this operation, with support from President Trump, despite Trump's public stance advocating for diplomatic and political solutions to the Iranian nuclear problem. But, it seems the negotiating process Trump initiated with Iran might have been more of a smokescreen to keep Iran from discovering the impending attack.
Israeli intelligence services, Mossad, and the military intelligence, coordinated their efforts on Iranian soil. They created small bases and transported drones and specialized high-precision weapons, which later played a decisive role in overcoming Iran's air defense systems.
Familiar Treads
The situation echoes Vietnam's Gulf of Tonkin incident, where allegedly unprovoked attack by North Vietnamese boats on U.S. naval vessels were used to justify escalating U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War. Israel's strikes evoke echoes of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, where alleged weapons of mass destruction were the pretext for a war that ultimately destabilized the Middle East for years. Does history repeat itself?
Is a Big Player Benefitting?
Netanyahu's main beneficiary of this conflagration is undoubtedly himself. He was quoted as saying he has dreamed of this for thirty years. His domestic political situation is also precarious: his coalition is on the brink of collapse, and upcoming elections remain uncertain, potentially leading to legal trouble for him. In times of war, politicians can rally their base behind national security issues, potentially strengthening their hand or avoiding charges.
Trump too may stand to gain. He might have understood from these negotiations with Iran that they wouldn't make significant concessions to Trump's demands. However, he initially demanded that Iran nullify its uranium enrichment program, which is within Iran's rights according to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. When Iran didn't comply with Trump's hardline demands, Trump seemed to be waiting for Israel to make the first move.
What About Russia?
For today, the price of oil on world markets has risen by 13-14 percent and reached $78 per barrel, only to drop again. Despite our potential ability to capitalize on rising oil prices, the U.S. has threatened severe economic sanctions.
We have a signed agreement with Iran, but it's more of a strategic partnership than a military alliance. Given the poor outlook for Iran, serious strategic partnerships in all areas - military, technological, economic, and trade - would be challenging to maintain. With Iran facing significant rebuilding, focusing on its own recovery is much more critical than making strategic maneuvers.
The internal political and economic situation in Iran is complex. Roughly 70 percent of the population reportedly express dissatisfaction with the regime. The Israeli strikes may stir pent-up political unrest, especially if they trigger anti-regime movements, especially since they did not target civilian infrastructure. This could potentially strengthen hardline pro-Israeli factions in Iran.
Can negotiations between the U.S. and Iran resume? Trump has said that there is still a chance for Iran to negotiate under his terms, but Iran has rejected the offer. Another round of talks was scheduled for June 15, but Iran canceled the talks and future negotiations as well.
Netanyahu and his Desired War
Netanyahu seems intent on destroying Iran. He declared that the operation won't last a day, two, or a week but may stretch on for months. His goal is to reduce Iran to a point where it won't have the military capacity to respond to Israel's actions. Control over Iran's nuclear and missile programs is crucial to Israel. American warships are already en route to protect Israel from any potential Iranian retaliation.
Regional Allies vs. the US
Iran's regional allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have condemned Israel's attacks, but their words hold little weight since Iran is their competition and rival in all matters. They have always feared Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Israel's actions help reduce the potential threat. Although they've publicly expressed their dissatisfaction with Israel's moves, conflict-stricken Arab-Israeli accords may eventually be restored, with other regional powers joining them.
Is the Long-Awaited Regional War Upon Us?
Several waves of attacks have targeted Iran, with aircraft dropping bombs, retreating to refuel, and returning to launch more attacks. It's still unclear how much damage was done to Iran's main nuclear facility in Natanz.
Iran, aware of the incoming strikes, moved key nuclear facilities underground, making them harder to destroy. However, the damage inflicted upon Iran's surface infrastructure will take time to repair. Israel not only destroyed Iran's color and intellectual talent, killing six leading physicists, but also decimated the command of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, army, and other military branches. The losses Iran sustained are significant.
The Road to a Nuclear Iran?
These Israeli attacks should ignite Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons. However, Israel's military might has severely weakened Iran, particularly its air defense systems and missile capabilities. Rebuilding this damage will take time, complicating Iran's nuclear ambitions in the short term.
Finally, the deaths of six leading physicists are causing chaos within Iran's nuclear program. These scientists played critical roles in Iran's "Amad" project, the old project dedicated to developing genuinely nuclear weapons, which Iran ended in 2003. Israeli intelligence claimed that Iran secretly continued work on the project and these scientists were central to it. Similarly, the Iranian military leadership was decimated. While Ayatollah Khamenei can order attacks, his limited military expertise could make the decision-making process challenging.
Despite the significant strike against Iran, the country faces a complex situation in all aspects - politically, economically, and diplomatically, not to mention the tough road to military recovery. The situation is grim, and I have my doubts that Iran will soon return to its previous position of power.
- The political fallout from the surprise attack on Iran's nuclear sites could lead to further complications, as Netanyahu's actions may fuel regional conflicts and war-and-conflicts, similar to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
- The ongoing tension in the Middle East, stirred by the attack, has potential ramifications in the realm of general-news, particularly in terms of international relations, as Russia, the U.S., Israel, Iran, and other regional powers navigate the evolving landscape.
