Campaign frontrunner Spanberger trumping Earle-Sears in preliminary gubernatorial surveys; voter unease persists at considerable levels
In the race for Virginia's governorship, Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate, currently holds a significant lead over her Republican counterpart, Winsome Earle-Sears. According to the Commonwealth Poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University between June 19 and July 3, 2025, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 12 percentage points, with a notable margin of 49% to 37%.
This advantage among likely voters is reflected in the poll's findings, which suggest that voters are prioritizing performance and key issues such as rising living costs, women's rights, and immigration policies. There appears to be a noticeable shift away from education toward economic and personal freedoms in voter concerns.
The financial aspect of the campaign also favours Spanberger, as she has raised about $27 million, significantly more than Earle-Sears’s $12 million. This positions the race as potentially one of the most expensive in Virginia history, with both candidates attracting substantial big-money donations. However, Spanberger maintains a clear financial edge.
Earlier polling, such as from October 2024, indicated Earle-Sears holding a strong lead in Republican primary contexts. However, these polls may not be as reflective of the general election match-up against Spanberger.
Voter sentiment also includes broader attitudes—approval of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is slipping among independents, and overall disapproval of former President Trump is high in Virginia. This may benefit the Democratic candidate as voters seek concrete action on pressing issues.
As the November 2025 election approaches, the race may evolve, and campaign dynamics including fundraising and messaging will be crucial. However, current polling data and voter sentiment suggest that Spanberger is well-positioned to secure the governorship.
In the Roanoke College poll, conducted between May 12 and May 19, Spanberger received 53% support among independent voters, while Earle-Sears received 47%. The poll also shows Spanberger with 43% support among likely voters, while Earle-Sears has 26%.
Despite the lead, 28% of voters in the Roanoke College poll are undecided about their choice. The large share of undecided voters, especially among Republicans, could still help Earle-Sears catch up as the election nears.
The findings of the Roanoke College poll echo those of a separate poll conducted by Virginia FREE, which showed Spanberger doing better with independent voters. However, both candidates have their share of unfavourable opinions, with Spanberger viewed favourably by 41% of respondents and Earle-Sears seen less favourably, with 32% viewing her positively.
The Roanoke College poll also reveals that a majority (51%) of respondents believe Virginia is on the wrong track, while 66% believe the country is on the wrong track. Concerns about the national debt are also high, with 42% of voters being very concerned and 40% somewhat concerned.
Former President Donald Trump's approval stands at 31% in the Roanoke College poll, and his influence on the race remains to be seen. The poll has a margin of error of about 5%.
In conclusion, Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears by a significant margin in recent polls and outpaces her in fundraising. However, the race may evolve as it nears the November 2025 election, and campaign dynamics including fundraising and messaging will be crucial.
- The general news covering the Virginia governorship race has highlighted the candidates' positions on key issues such as immigration policies, economic issues, and women's rights, with voters prioritizing performance in this area.
- Despite Abigail Spanberger's current lead in the polls and significant fundraising advantage, the race could still see a shift as the election nears, due to the large number of undecided voters, particularly among Republicans.
- Broader news topics, such as the national economy and the national debt, are also causing concern among Virginia voters, according to polls like the Roanoke College poll.
- The findings of both the Roanoke College poll and the Virginia FREE poll indicate that, although Abigail Spanberger is favored by more respondents, both candidates have their share of unfavorable opinions and former President Donald Trump's influence on the race remains to be seen.
