Calm returns following Northern California's encounter with floods, high winds, and giant waves.
After a winter storm hit Northern California on Thursday, causing power outages, fallen trees, and flooding in Santa Cruz, the region is bracing for another week of dry and hot conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor report from early August 2025 highlights increasing drought severity across Northern California, with limited monsoon precipitation expected in the coming weeks, suggesting little chance for storm relief before the wet season begins in October.
The storm that hit on Thursday caused significant damage along the coast. Emma Simpkins, a staff member at a restaurant near the Santa Cruz Jetty, had never seen waves as huge as the ones that battered the coast on Thursday. The Santa Cruz Jetty was damaged by waves up to 20 feet high. High tides and giant waves also caused damage to the pier in the seaside community of Capitola and another in Seacliff. Capitola experienced flooding caused by a 5.6-foot high tide combined with a swell and rain runoff from the storm.
Despite the damage, the warnings for people living in the watershed locations of Uvas Tank and Pacheco Pass River Basin were lifted by 6 p.m. on Thursday. The trend was declining along Santa Cruz's coastline by noon, but the waves were still huge and caused closure of West Cliff Drive due to high surf and erosion problems.
However, the National Climate Service has issued a high surf advisory for the section of shore north of Monterey Bay through early Friday, warning of waves up to 22 feet and dangerous sea conditions. Another series of storms is anticipated to strike the region over the weekend and into next week.
Authorities are closely watching potential flooding that could affect crowded areas, including along Ross Creek at Cherry Avenue, Upper Penitencia Creek at Mabury and King roads, and Guadalupe River at West Alma Avenue in San Jose. Brett Whitin, a hydrologist at the California Nevada River Forecast Center, stated that the Hopland location of the Russian River had surpassed flood stage since Thursday morning. The Sacramento River and the Cosumnes River, which had levee breaks, are expected to see flooding stages exceeded following week.
Forecasters are not expecting the river in Guerneville to flood on Friday. The river is expected to reach its peak at 26.2 feet on Friday morning, below the flooding stage level of 32 feet. Cindy Palmer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in the Bay Area, stated that they received less rainfall than expected from the storm.
Despite the upcoming storms, the forecast for Northern California through the coming weekend and following week indicates no additional storms are expected; instead, dry and hot conditions are anticipated to persist. This prolonged dry spell reinforces a continued drought and elevated wildfire risk due to dry fuels and heat. The Farmers’ Almanac winter forecast (released August 18, 2025) references dramatic winter swings but does not indicate imminent storms for late August or early September in California, suggesting storm activity will be more likely in the traditional wet season starting later in the year.
The potential impacts of the continuing dry and hot conditions include increased wildfire risk, elevated heat stress and related health risks, and continued drought aggravation affecting water supply, agriculture, and ecosystems. Fire danger remains elevated due to dry conditions and heat, increasing the risk of wildfires in Northern California during August and September.
In summary, no additional storms are forecast for Northern California through the weekend or the upcoming week. Instead, hot, dry weather will likely heighten wildfire risks and drought-related challenges until the wet season arrives in the fall.
The drought in Northern California, as indicated by the U.S. Drought Monitor's August report, is worsening, with little relief expected before October's wet season. Businesses and communities along the coast experienced significant damage due to the winter storm that hit on Thursday, causing high waves and flooding. Authorities are closely monitoring potential flooding in crowded areas, such as Ross Creek at Cherry Avenue, Upper Penitencia Creek, and Guadalupe River, as another series of storms are anticipated to hit the region over the weekend and into next week.
