Butchers seeking substantial cut in pig prices amidst challenging market conditions
In the pork market, a clear oversupply of slaughter pigs is causing concern for producers and retailers alike. This oversupply has led to a stagnant pork price of 1.95 euros/kg SG since early July, putting pressure on sales.
In an attempt to alleviate this pressure, butchers have demanded a price reduction this week, citing unsatisfactory pork sales. However, Dr. Robert Elmerhaus, head of live animal purchasing at Tönnies, reported that demand remains subdued despite the end of holidays in most federal states.
Despite the challenging market conditions, Tim Koch, market analyst at AMI, described the market situation as relatively balanced. The ISN expects pork production in Germany to be lower in the fourth quarter compared to last year, which could support prices and ease the pressure from lack of sales impulses.
However, the market balance is being disrupted by external factors. Chinese authorities imposed anti-dumping tariffs on European pork imports on September 10, 2025, due to an investigation finding evidence of EU pork and pork products being sold in China at dumping prices, harming the domestic industry. The tariffs vary between 15.6% and 62.4% depending on companies' cooperation in the investigation, with cooperating firms receiving rates between 15.6% and 32.7% and non-cooperating firms the maximum 62.4%. The countries most affected by these tariffs are Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark.
These tariffs have led to a decrease in pork imports and less supply of slaughter pigs, which could potentially lead to a decrease in pork production in Germany. Fewer imports and less supply could help to ease the oversupply issue, but the impact on prices remains to be seen.
Price weaknesses cannot be ruled out in the pork market, as the supply of slaughter pigs on the producer side is slightly increasing. Market observers report a balanced situation in the live pig market, but the overall market dynamics are complex and subject to change.
In response to the tariffs, prices in Denmark and Belgium have dropped after weeks of stagnation. In Spain, slaughter pigs have become cheaper again, while in Italy, slaughter pig prices have significantly increased. These price fluctuations highlight the market's instability and the challenges faced by producers and retailers alike.
As the market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out in the coming months. The pork market is expected to remain volatile, and it will be essential for stakeholders to adapt and respond to these changes to maintain profitability.
