The party's over for Boris Johnson, but the hangover's just starting
The official reports stating potential unlawful gatherings at Downing Street 10 during the pandemic peak, under strict nationwide lockdown, suggest Johnson's hangover has begun to set in.
Johnson might be hoping that the meticulously edited report from high-ranking civil servant Sue Gray will silence the dogs chasing him; if it does, it'll create a whirlwind of speculation when he speaks in the House of Commons on Monday about Gray's findings. We'll soon find out how wrong you've been.
The dogs continued to bark and the hunters continued to blow their horns, but the most perilous moment in Johnson's political career was yet to come. The clever fox-like Premier Minister seemed neither unscathed nor showed signs of desperate concern.
In hectic two hours in Westminster, a party leader was ejected from the room for calling the Premier Minister a liar, and several MPs shed tears while describing the tragedy during the pandemic. Under tears, Johnson repeated the one word he considered most important: "apologies". Usually employed to avoid aggravating critics, now it seemed to minimize any attempts to appease.
However, Grays report in No. 10 was always a letdown after an extraordinary intervention from Metropolitan Police Chief Cressida Dick, who last week claimed Gray's report didn't cover the extent at which police were currently working. Important details of the investigation.
In the wonderland-like world of Parliament, this was seen as a victory for Johnson, at least extending his time to push his political narrative for a few more months.
Gray was a respected civil servant with a fact-driven reputation, but her work was severely impacted by simultaneous Met investigations. A hint of her underlying frustration lies in her referring to her findings as an "update" rather than a complete report.
Besides the potential legal implications, the preliminary conclusions from the report – that the gathering was inappropriate, that a drinking culture prevailed in No. 10, and that leadership was lacking – didn't surprise anyone.
However, Johnson hoped that by his apology and pledge to reform workflows in the Downing Street – where the boundaries between the Premier Minister's official residence and workplace have long blurred – and continue, he could diminish the unrest among his own Conservatives to its peak. By this time, his hopes had been dashed. The bank was free.
The public is outraged by the discrepancy between the sacrifices they made during the lockdown and the seemingly endless stream of jovial parties at the heart of the government, and they feel uneasy in the face of the focus on trivial matters rather than potential crises elsewhere. Ukraine and energy costs, for example. Instead of worrying about how the public would perceive his statements, Johnson's focus is now solely on the 359 conservative MPs who hold the fate of the Premier Minister in their hands. It's unclear if they're ready to use their constitutional power.
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged this, focusing on the Conservative MPs instead of the public in his reaction to Johnson's statement. He called their leaders "shameless", before turning to the MPs sitting behind him and urging them: "You are the only ones who can end this farce. The eyes of the nation are upon you."
The House watched, waiting, and was not disappointed as Conservative MPs challenged Johnson's leadership. Former Prime Minister Theresa May, renowned for her gravitas and dignity, questioned Johnson on whether he didn't understand COVID-19 rules or was intentionally ignoring them.
Another senior Conservative, Andrew Mitchell, stated he could no longer support Johnson's leadership after 30 years in politics.
The youngest MP in the House, Aaron Bell, drawn attention with his report on his grandmothers funeral – attended by only 10 mourners who had to travel three hours to reach it, while only one person could participate in the service and couldn't comfort or even leave the service to go home and have a cup of tea with their family. This is in stark contrast to the Downing Street parties, where officials held cheese and wine parties and sang happy birthday to the Prime Minister.
Although the comments from Conservative MPs were scathing, they maintained the unnerving silence that usually follows discussions with the Prime Minister, as they had done three weeks earlier during Prime Minister's Questions. Instead, there was jubilation and loud support for the opposite. The party culture in No. 10 emerged for the first time during the lockdown, and it seems the Prime Minister might not survive this week.
By the end of the meeting, it seemed there were still enough loyalists willing to defend Johnson and convince him to hold on. If he manages to navigate this most challenging crisis in his public and private life so far, as he had with many smaller setbacks, this might just be another chapter in his colorful life.
However, more danger looms for the Premier Minister. According to the Conservative Party rules, 15% of the party's MPs – currently 54 – are required to launch a leadership contest, a threshold that could be easily surpassed.
[References]: [1] [3] [4]
