Border Disputes at Odds in Ukraine-Russia Negotiations
The prospect of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains uncertain, as both leaders grapple with various political and security concerns.
The territorial cession between Ukraine and Russia, particularly the contested regions of Donetsk and the Donbas, remains the main point of contention. Russia has annexation of Donetsk as one of its maximalist objectives, a demand that Ukraine finds unacceptable.
Switzerland and Austria have proposed Geneva and Vienna respectively as potential meeting venues. However, these options are seen as unlikely by both Ukraine and Russia, due to political and security concerns related to the ongoing conflict and mutual distrust. Switzerland, once considered a neutral country, no longer holds that status in Russia's eyes, following its acceptance of European sanctions against Moscow in 2022 due to the invasion.
Russia's capital, Moscow, has been proposed by the Kremlin as a possible meeting location, while Washington has suggested Budapest. Kiev, however, is hesitant about the latter, due to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's close ties with Putin. On the other hand, both European cities have governments that are perceived to be closer to Kiev.
Olga Tokariuk, a Ukrainian analyst, has stated that Putin has been reluctant to meet with Zelensky in the past. This reluctance is further reflected in Putin's recent accusation of Zelensky as a "dictator" due to the suspension of elections in Ukraine due to the war.
Giving up Donetsk would be strategically detrimental for Ukraine, as they have held off the Russians there for over 11 years. Such concessions would require a reform of the Ukrainian constitution, which cannot be done without a ceasefire, as martial law is currently in effect. Analyst Moritz Weiss from Ludwig Maximilian University has stated that Putin's demand for Ukraine to surrender its fortifications in the east and south is impossible.
Adding to the complexity, Pushing for the signing of an agreement under these terms would have an unacceptable political cost for Zelensky. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also stated that the meeting requires much preparation, making a meeting before the end of August unlikely.
Amidst these challenges, both leaders continue to seek a resolution, with the hope that diplomacy can bring an end to the conflict that has been raging for over a decade.
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