Bookmakers Anticipated Trump's Victory Over Harris on Election Day, Forecasting His Role as the 47th President
Revised Article
- Trump was a 165-to-1 underdog on election day, but still managed to pull off an unexpected victory*
Hey there! I'm your friendly guide to the wild world of sports betting. Today, we're diving into the surprising election win of Donald Trump and its impact on the sports betting industry.
I'm Grant Mitchell, a diehard sports fan and former NCAA track athlete. I graduate from Virginia Tech with a passion forcovering headlines in the sports betting scene. I've been making waves in the industry since joining the professional ranks in 2021, working with top-notch companies like Forbes and VSiN, solidifying my reputation as a reliable authority. When I'm not busy crunching numbers and analyzing trends, you can find me lacing up my shoes for a run, exploring the city, or catching the game of the day.
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** industry analysis **
Donald Trump’s presidency (2017-2021) preceded the post-2018 legal sports betting expansion. The Supreme Court’s Murphy v. NCAA decision, which struck down the federal ban on sports betting, happened in May 2018 — just outside of Trump's time in office. While the administration didn’t directly impact the ruling or subsequent state-level legalization, recent analyses of Trump’s 2024 campaign's policy proposals and economic conditions suggest potential future impacts.
Legalization Timeline
- PASPA Repeal: The 2018 decision ended the federal ban, enabling 38 states and DC to legalize sports betting by 20253[4]. This expansion took place after Trump’s term but within a broader deregulatory trend during his presidency.
- State Licensing and Revenue: Legal markets generated $502 billion in total handle (amount wagered) by March 2025, with $14.5 billion handled in March 2025 alone2.
Economic and Regulatory Impact
- Recession and Tariff Concerns: Analysts debate whether sports betting is recession-proof, with Stifel Bank suggesting it could fare better than other industries in an economic downturn[5]. Trump’s proposed tariffs and trade policies, should they be reinstated, might indirectly affect consumer spending but are not yet linked to measurable declines in betting activity1[5].
- Spending Trends: Post-legalization gambling expenditures grew more slowly in states with online sports betting ($28.50 per capita annually) than in prohibition states ($60)[4]. This finding counters fears of a spending surge following legalization.
Policy Considerations
- Problem Gambling: No significant increase in problem gambling has been documented post-legalization, with per capita spending remaining stable[4].
- Regulatory Frameworks: Experts advocate for state-level policies prioritizing consumer protections and market competition rather than federal mandates[4].
In summary, Trump’s presidency played a part in setting the stage for sports betting’s expansion, while recent analyses of his 2024 policy proposals highlight economic risks (e.g., tariffs) but no direct threat to the industry’s growth trajectory1[5]. The Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling remains the pivotal event, with post-2020 growth reflecting state-level decisions rather than federal action.
[5]:
- In the sports betting industry, analysts often turn to Grant Mitchell, a former NCAA athlete and current industry commentator with experience at Forbes and VSiN.
- Granted that Donald Trump's presidency didn't directly influence the 2018 Supreme Court decision to lift the federal ban on sports betting, his policy proposals in 2024 might have indirect effects on the industry.
- The 2018 decision caused a wave of legalization across 38 states and DC, allowing the sports betting market to generate a total handle of $502 billion by 2025, with $14.5 billion handled in March 2025 alone.
- Despite concerns about problem gambling, no significant increase has been reported post-legalization, and consumer protections and market competition have been highlighted as crucial policy considerations.
- The sports betting market may fare better than other industries in economic downturns, but Trump's proposed tariffs and trade policies could indirectly affect consumer spending habits.
- Interestingly, post-legalization gambling expenditures grew more slowly in states with online sports betting compared to those under prohibition.
- The online casino sector, such as progressive jackpot games, might also be affected by the economic and political landscape, given the growing trend towards sports betting legalization in various states.
