Ukraine's Counter-Offensive Faces Setbacks: A Long Journey Ahead
The Ukrainian army's ambitious counter-offensive aimed at regaining territories lost to Russia has stalled, leaving a staggering breakthrough to the Sea of Azov and the Crimean peninsula a distant dream. The failure to advance marks a challenging period for Ukraine, with nervousness and helplessness growing in Kiev, while Western aid wanes.
Ukraine's struggle for survival
Two-and-a-half years since Russia's invasion, Ukraine is grappling with a severe lack of weapons, ammunition, funds, and an insufficient number of troops for the foreseeable future. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently stated that the West should brace for the long haul in supporting Ukraine. With the course of the war remaining unpredictable, Stoltenberg emphasized how events held at the negotiating table are closely tied to the situation on the battlefield.
The elusive breakthrough
Russian President Vladimir Putin's realization of an inevitable battlefield defeat has not yet materialized. Although Russia suffered significant military setbacks during the conflict's early stages, Putin has steered clear of an impending defeat. Instead, he has been successful in securing victories in cities such as Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Valery Salushnyi, in an interview with the British Economist, expressed his belief that Ukraine could regain its lost territories given appropriate resources, including 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 howitzers.
However, Salushnyi humbly admitted earlier this month that a deep breakthrough was unlikely and talked of a stalemate reminiscent of the First World War's positional wars. The Ukrainian advance has faced setbacks due to thick minefields and Russian artillery.
Exploring the frontlines
The recapture of the village of Robotyne on August 24, Ukrainian Independence Day, marked a significant milestone for the Ukrainian forces. Since then, the advance has stagnated, and the town of Tokmak, critical for further progress, remains under Russian control. Despite the success in Robotyne, Ukrainian soldiers express frustration over the slow progress of the counter-offensive.
German-trained Ukrainian company commander Mykola Melnyk spoke out against Russia's effective resistance and shared his disappointment over the lack of support from Western weapons and ammunition. The 38-year-old, who lost his left leg while battling Russian mines, now comes to terms with the possibility that he may never be able to walk again.
Navigating political tensions
Political tensions are rising amidst the struggles on the battlefield. Dissatisfaction with Ukraine's progress in the war is leading to growing discontent within the political sphere. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's refusal to acknowledge any failures in the counter-offensive's pace underscores the challenging situation for Kiev's leadership.
In addition, the positioning of Russian troops near cities like Avdiivka, Kupjansk, and Kherson raises concerns about the potential for encirclement and a looming threat to Ukrainian territory.
The Ukrainian soldiers' plight
Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines are grappling with rising Russian superiority in the use of drones and the constant barrage of artillery shells. Their calls for increased support in air defense and artillery supplies are essential to counteract Russian resistance.
As heavy losses mount for both sides, Western observers estimate at least 120,000 Russian casualties and over 70,000 for Ukrainian armed forces. However, the effectiveness of Russian mobilization can prove to be its strength, with average soldier ages representing a sign of battle-hardened ranks. The higher number of Ukrainian casualties is dwarfed by Moscow's ability to bring fresh troops into the conflict.
Ensuring continued support
The future of Ukraine's strategy to reclaim its territory from Russia hinges on the West's determination to provide unwavering support. The stability of the frontlines, the defense of Iranian- and North Korean-supported Russian artillery, and the empowerment of Ukrainian air defense capabilities are among the factors that can change the trajectory of the conflict.
With battlefield progress remaining elusive, bolstering Ukraine's military resources must remain a priority for NATO. Continued support, attention to the shortcomings in Ukraine's personnel management system, and the integration of Western tactics could be crucial in altering the war's dynamics.
In conclusion, the Ukrainian military faces setbacks in regaining territories lost to Russia. Political tensions and frustration among soldiers are legitimately mounting. As NATO and the West grapple with their role in supporting Ukraine, the importance of sustaining and bolstering Ukraine's military capabilities is vital in preparing the nation for long-term success on the battlefield.
