Biggest blunder by Bills in the 2025 NFL Draft
Critique of the Buffalo Bills' NFL Draft Strategy:
Swapping cocky for informal and infusing some insider knowledge without overwhelming the article.
The Buffalo Bills whiffed a near-perfect NFL Draft with a baffling lapse in judgment. Over three action-packed days and nine selections, the team nabbed players that should ideally fit snugly into their roster. However, a glaring mistake by general manager Brandon Beane – a more predictable blunder if there ever was one – marred their otherwise admirable performance.
Beane's Slippery Slope: The Loser's Curse Strikes Again
It's an open secret that the Baltimore Ravens, under the watch of GM Ozzie Newsome or Eric DeCosta, have routinely excelled in the NFL Draft. They boast a knack for hitting on picks and possess a shrewd approach built around the "Loser's Curse" theory.
Based on an economics paper of the same name, the gist of the Loser's Curse is that, over many years, teams are relatively equal in their drafting success or failure. The smart move, therefore, is to either stay put or trade back to increase your chances of success.
There's a lot to unpack with this idea, but the basic premise rings true: no one truly knows if a prospect is a bust or a Super Bowl MVP in the making. For every Payton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow taken first overall, there's a JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, or Jameis Winston among the top picks, not to mention the likes of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold being drafted ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, or Mitchell Trubisky getting selected eight spots ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
That's not to say that trading up for a franchise quarterback is always ill-advised – the results for the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens have been off-the-chart good. Still, one can’t ignore the potential for bad luck in singular cases as justification for a flawed process.
Beane's Dance with Disaster: A Long History of Needless Risk
One man who disregards the Loser's Curse is none other than Bills GM Brandon Beane. He has a propensity for trading up in the draft, consequences be damned, because he seems to know a thing or two about football and generally gets the player he wants in the round he wants.
Regrettably, the results of Beane's trading escapades are a testament to the validity of the Loser's Curse. After trading up in 2018 to snag Josh Allen, he's continued this pattern by trading up in the first or second round on numerous occasions – with largely disastrous results.
In 2019, he traded two spots in the second round to acquire offensive lineman Cody Ford, who saw limited success in Western New York over three meh seasons before being traded away. In 2022, it cost the Bills two slots in the first round to land Kaiir Elam, a massive bust who was recently dealt off, and this year he moved up two picks again to grab Dalton Kincaid, who has potential but pales in comparison to lesser-selected talents like Sam LaPorta.
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So what gives, Beane? If you want to roll the dice throughout the draft, go nuts on Day 3, where picks are less valuable. But the early rounds demand a more conservative approach.
Instead, your recent successes with Ed Oliver and Gregory Rousseau prove that, when you stay put, you can still nab core players who will help you win championships.
The Bills' Fatal Move in 2025: Playing Loser's Curse Roulette
Despite Beane's pledge to play it safe in the 2025 NFL Draft, his love for trading up reared its ugly head early in Round 2. In exchange for two highly valuable second-round selections (Nos. 56 and 62, as well as 109), the Bills traded up to No. 41 to take South Carolina defensive tackle T.J. Sanders.
On paper, Sanders looks like an excellent addition to the Bills' defense. He excels at speed and is a threatening pass-rusher who doesn’t shy away from taking on running backs. However, he may have slipped to 56, or the Bills could have netted talented defensive tackles like Shemar Turner, Omar-Norman-Lott, Darius Alexander, or Vernon Boughton—all of whom went between picks 62 and 71.
Time will tell if T.J. Sanders becomes a top player, but one thing is for sure: this trading up business is wearing thin.
The Bills Must Stop Trading up in the NFL Draft
If the Bills want to continue their upward trajectory and compete for titles, it's high time for Beane to heed the wisdom of the Loser's Curse. Sensible drafting isn't just about hitting on picks; it involves shrewd management of resources and an acceptance that no one truly knows how a prospect will pan out.
So, while the Bills had a great draft overall, it's time to cut out the costly errors. The real test won't be in 2025 or beyond; rather, it will come down to whether Beane can break his toxic habit of trading up in the first two rounds.
Here's hoping those trading antics stay locked in the past. After all, the Super Bowl is just a move away if the Bills can shed their unhealthy attachment to trading up in the draft.
^(There are many inefficiencies in the draft process, such as overvaluing draft position or underestimating the impact of personnel decisions on long-term roster health. The 'Loser's Curse' theory challenges these common assumptions – but even this market-based hypothesis can't fully explain or avoid draft missteps.)
^(Trade value charts are a common reference point used to help evaluate the cost-benefit of moving-up or moving-back in the draft. Teams like the Bills, who trade up, often pay more for limited gains when these charts suggest trading down would have been a smarter move.)
^(In dynasty fantasy football, where team owners must build rosters spanning multiple seasons, emphasizing future picks is crucial. Likewise, trading up in the NFL Draft can rob teams of future assets, limiting their flexibility to adapt to changing needs over time.)
^(In March 2023, the Patriots (No. 4 pick) and Jets (No. 3 pick) were offered trade-down packages that would have netted them multiple future first-round picks. Despite initially passing, both teams continued to face pressure to move down amid questions about the talent at the top of the draft.)
^(Draft value charts consider each draft slot on a logarithmic scale to reflect diminishing marginal returns for earlier picks. The 32nd pick of the 2024 draft is worth 10 times more than the 32nd pick of the 2027 draft.)
- The move by general manager Brandon Beane to trade up in the 2025 NFL Draft, swapping valuable second-round selections for the No. 41 pick, could be a costly mistake, given the promising defensive tackles that slipped past the Bills in the later part of the second round.
- Despite Brandon Beane's perceived football knowledge, his habit of trading up in the draft, as seen in the cases of Josh Allen, Cody Ford, Kaiir Elam, and Dalton Kincaid, has led to largely disappointing results for the Buffalo Bills.
- Understanding the Loser's Curse theory could help Brandon Beane make better drafting decisions in the future, as staying put or trading back could offer a higher chance of success, as exemplified by the Baltimore Ravens' consistent drafting success.
- If the Buffalo Bills are serious about competing for championships, general manager Brandon Beane must break his tendency to trade up in the first two rounds. Doing so will allow the team to make shrewd decisions about resource management and better position themselves for long-term success.
