Betting Suggestions from the MLB separations for Saturday, June 7th
Weekend Kickoff: 15-Game MLB Slate and Smart Money Leans
Let's start the weekend off right with a jam-packed 15-game MLB docket! We'll examine where the shrewdest bettors are placing their wagers in three select matchups using our real-time VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and sourced directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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- Today's MLB Games
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- MLB Odds
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1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-120, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
Following last night's Interleague series opener win (3-1), the hosts earn a -200 victory as favorites. In today's matchup, the Cubs send righty Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.76 ERA), while the Tigers counter with lefty Tyler Holton (2-2, 4.13 ERA).
The line initially opened favoring Detroit at -115, with the Cubs listed as a -105 underdog. But, sharp bettors have caught the Cubs bounce-back train and, since then, Chicago's odds have jumped from -105 to -120, displaying clear "dog to favorite" line movement in their favor.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and an impressive 75% of moneyline dollars, showcasing a "low bets, higher dollars" split. Similarly, at Circa, Chicago is experiencing a similar trend, netting 83% of moneyline bets and an overwhelming 90% of moneyline dollars.
The Cubs have been outstanding off a loss this season, ranking as the second-best "bounce-back" team with a 17-4 (81%) record and a 46% ROI. They've displayed more potent bats overall, hitting .262 with 83 homers and 357 runs compared to Detroit's .251 average, 76 home runs, and 320 runs. Road games bring out the Cubs' best, as they've hit an MLB-best .276 while the Tigers hit .247 at home (16th).
Taillon has held opponents to two runs or less in three consecutive starts, guiding the Cubs to three wins in those games. Holton has a 4.50 ERA at home this season compared to 3.77 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-120, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
Houston snagged last night's series opener win (4-2) as -130 road favorites. Today, they'll face the Guardians with righty Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.83 ERA) taking the mound for Houston and fellow righty Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.79 ERA) for Cleveland.
The line opened with the Astros favored at -135, and the Guardians listed as +115 underdogs. Despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings, Houston has seen a steady reduction in their odds, shifting from -135 to -120. This movement indicates sharp bettors reversing their stance, favoring the Guardians, as some books already have the Astros at -115.
Teams that struggle against short chalk favorites (+120 or less) sport a 102-89 (53%) record since May 1st, returning a 10% ROI and earning +19 units. Saturday home teams off a loss receiving line movement in their favor enjoy a 38-26 (59%) record this season, accompanied by a 13% ROI. Saturday home dogs boast a 26-25 (51%) record with a 10% ROI.
Brown has posted a 2.51 ERA on the road compared to 0.88 at home, but Williams has limited opponents to two runs or less in five of his last six starts. Cleveland is 4-2 in his last six overall games.
4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-140, 8) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox edged out last night's series opener (7-2) as +115 home dogs. For today's face-off, the Royals will send righty Michael Wacha (3-4, 2.88 ERA) against righty Adrian Houser (1-1, 1.47 ERA) from the White Sox.
The opening line had Kansas City listed as a -150 road favorite, with Chicago a +130 underdog. However, despite popular opinion, the public favoring the Royals, the oddsmakers have dropped the Kansas City price from -150 to -140. This adjustment occurs because respected sharp action is betting on the plus-money White Sox, causing reverse line movement in favor of the home team.
At Circa, the White Sox are receiving just 38% of moneyline bets but an outsized 97% of moneyline dollars, highlighting the presence of heavier wiseguy wagers supporting the home team in Las Vegas. Chicago has value as a divisional dog, with the built-in familiarity and rivalry boosting upset opportunities. Short dogs (+120 or less) are 102-89 (53%) with a 10% ROI and +19 units won since May 1st.
The White Sox sport a 15-17 (47%) home record but have recorded a 14% ROI due to favorable plus-money dog payouts. Wacha has posted a 4.40 ERA on the road compared to 1.80 at home.
Here are three sentences that utilize the given words and follow from the provided context:
- The moneyline odds for the Chicago Cubs in their MLB game against the Detroit Tigers have shifted, with bettors preferring the Cubs despite their initial underdog status, indicating a "dog to favorite" line movement.
- In the Houston Astros versus Cleveland Guardians matchup, sharp bettors are favoring the underdog Guardians, causing a reduction in the Astros' odds, exhibiting reverse line movement.
- The Kansas City Royals face the Chicago White Sox with oddsmakers dropping the Kansas City price from -150 to -140, despite public favoring the Royals, suggesting the presence of heavier wiseguy wagers on the plus-money White Sox.
