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Betting Predictions in the NBA: Insights from Odds Distributions, Rankings, and Patterns for May 28-29

Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team provide NBA betting trends for May 28-29, key insights to consider before wagering.

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NBA Betting Insights for May 28-29: Trends to Consider for Successful Wagers, Courtesy of Steve...
NBA Betting Insights for May 28-29: Trends to Consider for Successful Wagers, Courtesy of Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics Team.

Betting Predictions in the NBA: Insights from Odds Distributions, Rankings, and Patterns for May 28-29

Today's NBA Playoff Trends: Analysis and Top Bets for Thunder vs Timberwolves on May 28, 2025

The following NBA betting trends involve analytical data, betting systems, and strength ratings featured on VSiN for the Oklahoma City Thunder versus Minnesota Timberwolves game on May 28, 2025, and May 29, 2025. These trends aim to emulate the process used by Steve Makinen and other VSiN Analytics team members when handicapping each day's NBA board.

Expert Picks: AI's Top Choices

Following Bill Adee's guidelines from recent VSiN newsletters, we've employed an online AI service to provide an additional perspective. As of January 30, the AI's record stands at 97-80-4 (54.8%). Below are today's AI-driven recommendations:

  • Oklahoma City (-8.5 vs MIN): Multiple playoff trends, team strength system #1, Makinen power ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all support the Thunder.

AJ's Angles: Hand-Picked NBA Trends

VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen selected the following top NBA betting trends for today's games:

  • High-scoring Game Fives with closeout implication: Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have averaged 225.4 points per game when one team is closing out the series, showcasing their determination to seal the deal (85.7% Over record).
  • Better-seeded teams have been dominant in Game Fives, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%) since 2013, with the outright winner typically covering the spread.
  • Road teams with closeout opportunities have been successful, winning nine out of the last 11 times (72.7%).

DK NBA Betting Splits Data Strategies

One of VSiN.com's most popular features is the betting splits pages, which utilize DraftKings data to showcase betting breakdowns for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In a VSiN.com article published on the season's opening day, Steve Makinen outlined various systematic strategies for effectively using DK Betting Splits Data over the last two seasons. These are the applicable systems and qualifying plays for today's Game Five:

  1. DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle is wagered on the road side, this "super" majority group has a 616-546 ATS record (53%) over the last two seasons. This system has proven consistent, with a good portion of the overall money usually leading to a road team victory.
  2. DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The 63% or higher super-majority number has shown success in non-divisional conference games, boasting a 390-334 ATS record (53.9%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.
  3. DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in the playoffs over the last two seasons, going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Bettors are losing on favorite plays more often in the postseason, which can be significant starting in April.

Conference Finals Trends/Systems

  1. Scoring Trends: Teams that reach or surpass 116 points have performed exceptionally well in the conference finals, boasting an 88.9% win-loss record (57-8 SU, 56-7-2 ATS) over the past 12 seasons. Conversely, teams that score 94 points or fewer have struggled, going just 11-52 SU and 11-51 ATS (17.7%) since 2013.
  2. Line Range Trends: Big favorites are trending toward slower starts in the NBA playoffs. In games where conference finals favorites lay 5 points or more, they have only been successful 38.2% of the time (21-14 SU, 13-21-1 ATS) since 2018. Moreover, high totals have led to unders (58.2%), with 32 of the 55 games seeing the total fall short (216.5 or higher).
  3. Last Game Trends: The zig-zag theory remains relevant in the conference finals. Teams that lost their previous game by single digits tend to fare well when playing the following game. Additionally, close losses followed by playing away from home have shown a low winning percentage.
  4. Game Number Trends: Favorites have performed exceptionally well in conference finals Game Fives, with a 77.8% (14-4 SU and ATS) win-loss record since 2013. The better-seeded teams in Game Five have been particularly dominant, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%), with the outright winner typically covering the spread as well.
  5. Seed Number Trends: Top-seeded teams excel at covering large spreads, having a strong record (30-3 SU, 20-13 ATS) when favored by 6.5 points or more during the conference finals since 2019. Additionally, teams seeded #5 or lower have shown resilience as underdogs, going 22-9 ATS (71%) since 2021.
  7. Winning/Losing Streak Trends: There are no qualifying trends for Game Five with regard to winning or losing streaks.

Schedule Situations Influencing NBA Handicapping

Analyzing scheduling situations is crucial for NBA handicapping, as teams' performances often shift based on their workload, rest, or injuries. However, no relevant qualifying scheduling situations were found for Game Five.

NBA Team Strength Systems

  1. NBA Team Strength Betting System #1: For games between teams with a 60%+ winning percentage, home teams preferred in the -4.5 to -9.5 range have had a 154-61 SU and 126-88-1 ATS (58.9%) record since 2019.

NBA Strength Ratings

Based on today's MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS on VSiN.com, the following teams appear to be undervalued based on the odds and their strength ratings:

  1. INDIANA, with a +0.9 difference between the current line and the Makinen Power Ratings projection, is considered an underpriced underdog.
  2. OKLAHOMA CITY, with a +0.1 difference between the current line and the Makinen Power Ratings projection, is seen as an underpriced favorite.
  3. MINNESOTA and INDIANA, with respective differences of +0.9 and +0.5, are perceived as undervalued underdogs according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings projections.
  4. IND-NYK OVER 222.5, with a difference of +0.2 according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings projections, could be an undervalued total.
  5. INDIANA and MINNESOTA, with respective differences of +0.9 and +0.2, are considered undervalued underdogs based on the Makinen Bettors Ratings projections.
  6. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with multiple betting trends, team strength system #1, Makinen power ratings projection, and a recent head-to-head trend, have expert picks supporting them with a point spread of -8.5 versus the Minnesota Timberwolves.
  7. In Game Five of today's NBA playoffs, high-scoring games with closeout implication have averaged 225.4 points per game since 2016, with an 85.7% over record, as per VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen's top NBA betting trends.
  8. Oklahoma City's game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on May 28, 2025, can be analyzed using DK NBA Betting Splits system #2, which, when 59% or more of the handle is wagered on the road side, has a 616-546 ATS record (53%) over the last two seasons.
  9. Game Fives with a better-seeded team have been dominant since 2013, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%), as one of the conference finals trends/systems identified by VSiN.
  10. Road teams with closeout opportunities have been successful, winning nine out of the last 11 times (72.7%), according to VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen's selected top NBA betting trends for today's games.

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